ASX Today, page-37282

Chinese New Year this Saturday, iron ore price was smashed during 2013 and 2015, bottomed in early December 2015 at US$39/t. Lithium Chinese spot price smashed over 80%, hit the low on 6 December 2023, which I believe current lithium price cycle is exactly same as when iron ore price cycle was in December 2015/early 2016. Iron ore was oversupplied, by 280 million tons (~18% of the global supply) in 2015/2016 as Goldman Sachs tipped. At that time only few small producers shut down, Roy Hill and FMG, were still entering the market, more supply came, but iron ore price gradually recovered just after China New Year on 8 February 2016, hit US$81/t in December 2016. GS' forecast of US$38/t for 2016, was completely wrong.




Currently Chinese lithium futures price bottomed in early December 2023, at CNY 85,650/t, hovering around CNY 95,000/t and CNY 108,000/t for two months now, currently sitting at CNY 98,250/t.
I believe lithium futures price will start to recover after Chinese New Year holiday next week.

Coincidentally, Guangzhou Futures Exchange just announced to halve commissions effective 19 February 2024, also significantly lower required futures margin on lithium futures trading.



Shorters had their big win over last few months, it will be the turn for longers to come.
151m short positions, need to see how long and how many will be covering.

Gina made a joint bid for AZS after lithium price bottomed in early December 2023, so she doesn't concern about short term lithium price. Otherwise, she wouldn't make the bid for AZS as lithium price was smashed over 80% on 6 December 2023. Her bid was made on 19 December 2023.

Always DYOR. ALL IMO.