2023 China lepidolite production (from 12 main mines) was only...

2023 China lepidolite production (from 12 main mines) was only 97Kt LCE. Far less than Goldman Sachs' forecast of 141kt LCE. GS forecast 2024 China lepidolite production to be 252Kt LCE. If China lithium carbonate price did not recover above CNY 150,000/t, China 2024 lepidolite production would be much much lower that their forecast, I guess 120kt LCE in 2024 would be reasonable.
Although the listed production costs for lepidolite mines are not ALL IN COSTS, at least 25% on top of that amount.

Woodmac ridiculous forecast (US$850/t last until 2027). They can't forecast price for few months, but gave long term ridiculous prediction. That is exactly same as Goldman Sach's forecast of iron ore price did December 2015 where iron ore price bottomed at US$39/t, GS' forecast iron ore price: 2016: US$38/t, and US$35/t for 2017 & 2018). They are completely WRONG!

LTR first production is scheduled in July 2024. Currently China lithium futures contract (July 2024) price CNY 119,200/t (implied spodumene concentrate (SC6) price is around US$1,200/t). At that price, LTR should be doing fine at ramp up stage. Also, as lithium price continues to recover, I expect to hit CNY 150,000/t (~SC6 price US$1,700/t) this month, so that should dramatically improve the outlook and thus help concluding the financing pack.

As I posted just weeks ago, Gina should make a move while lithium price is at the bottom level. The earlier she does, the cheaper she may get it. AGO, lowest price was around 0.9c, she made a bid at 4.2c, increased to 4.6c, then successfully took it over.

The market is always OVER reacting, either to negative or positive. LTR got beat down so badly, from $3.20 to 87.5c, due to, ALB bid withdrawal; CR at $1.80; ALB sale; Woodmac triggered financing redo; and obviously free fall lithium price (>80% drop in China lithium price). How hard it fell, how fast it will bounce!

Always DYOR, all imo.