What has one got to lose here! All the bad news and doom and...

What has one got to lose here!

All the bad news and doom and gloom was already priced in when stock was trading sub~90c - It has risen along with the broader lithium sector after the Chinese New year when Lithium prices recovered ~20%


On the flip side of the bet - there is lots to gain!

- Project is likely 75%+ completed by now (official number was 72% at end of year?). Fuding gap is more to do with ramp up period than the construction itself - which is going full swing.

- Funding package is going to be announced in few days (~13 trading days) This will only be a positive news else any reasonable board would have shut down construction by now if there was no funding pathway. They have fiduciary duty

- Ford has done their bit - LG and Tesla need to do their bit. Both have the "need" and "means" to make this problem go away in matter of days.

- What's the chances of Tony going to the US for BMO and not having met Tesla? and Ford? - I say nil

- Madeleine King jetting off to US in a hurry to discuss incentive price issue (This is not an issue that can be fixed in short term BUT imagine if it did)

- And then there is Sumitomo downstream study - which will be enhanced by the downstream production tax credits that are looking likely!

- Last but not the least, these are goldilocks conditions for an opportunistic TO bid or a genuine business combination/partnership

- What if none of these things happen - Worst case scenario is that we end up with a sub-optimal funding package, couple of years of negative EBITDA as we go through ramp up and low pricing environment, BUT Liontown shareholders will have 100% ownership of very high quality hard rock lithium asset that is going to be the envy of world in few years time. That not too bad as the fall back position [Mind you if Chinese were allowed to, they will buy this thing today for lot more than what ALB can ever think about ]

Having milked this cow once for 200%+ returns, selling into Gina, buying back again, I am now sitting on a handsome gain at the moment and have a dejavu feeling similar to pre-ALB days when stock was $1.3

Watch the history repeat itself again in a few day! (13 trading days to be precise). Rarely we get such odds in retail investing

I wouldn't bet against this stock!