Li Supply &Demand
The HC forum seemsto be choked with EV sales numbers, bubble and bust. The future is beingelectrified for better or worse, here are a few pointers to consider.
I’ll keep thissimple:
KISS (Keep ItSimple Stupid) with a bit of
SWOT (StrengthsWeaknesses Opportunity Threats).
Firstly
The sale of EV’sand obviously the all-important batteries is NOT the barometer of the viabilityof Li mines. EV sales is not a straight road, it’s a twisting road fraught withobstructions, traffic lights, traffic jams, and accidents. Just like all otherhuman endeavour. Compounded by in no particular order by, Relative Strength or Weaknessof various economies, Gov. Incentives, Gov. Subsidies, Supply Chain Probs.(recently computer chip shortages etc.) shipping, weather, bad Northern Winter,not good for EV car sales, Holidays, Christmas, Easter, Chinese New Year, etc,etc,
However, its beenmandated that it’s an Electric future. The reality is that the pollution isbeing moved from the exhaust pipe to the mine and factory site, with thecomplete degradation in some mining jurisdictions, particularly Indonesia inwith Ni, & Africa with Co. ESG considerations to follow.
Growth
EV’s are just one factor,Tradie Hand Tools, and home appliance is in rapid transition a vast and growingmarket where the batteries will be mostly one time only use due to the extremeproblems in trying to recycle them, they love to spontaneously self immolate inquantity, fires that are impossible to extinguish.
EV’s v. ICE
IMO, it’s notbinary or black and white it’s more 50 Shades of Grey (Hmm, Sado Masochism Ithink we are beating ourselves up too much over this) totally replacing ICEvehicles on this diverse Island continent in the next 30 years or so is a fallacy.Replacing them in/on the city scape is a possibility for going to the shops anddoing the school run. Towing your Boat, Horse Float, Caravan, Tradie Trailer,Cattle Trailer, etc. more than a couple of hundred K’s I don’t think so. Thebig V8 will still be king of that space.
However
This is where itgets exciting for the future of Battery & Electrification Tech. Retro-fittingyour 2/3 ton trailers with battery packs and designated slave electric motorsto supply drive to 2 (or more) wheels to assist the towing, negating the weightwith a fuel saving of around 40%. On a larger scale: Google (Krone ElectricTrailers). Road Trains (& all HGV semis) of the future will still have amassive Diesel Powered prime mover, coupled to a number of electric-assist drivetrailers, whereby the electric drive wheels will be a KERS (Kinetic EnergyRecovery System) first pioneered in F1. Self Charging on breaking & hilldecent. Happy Days! Just thing of that fitted to your Horse Box or Caravan,paid for by fuel savings, Virtuous Greening of the Great Aussie V8.
Absurdities
Let’s take a momentto look at some of the problems, I’m just back from London so this is a coupleof UK probs. Electric buses, the battery packs are so heavy that the buspassenger capacity has to be reduced by about 10. They take 12 hours to charge,so you need twice as many buses to do the same work to carry fewer passengers.Also, the Power Grid to the various garages is not large enough to charge afleet of buses, this is done via massive Diesel Generators. I love the smell ofGreen Hypocrisy in the morning. (Almost as good as Shorts Burning) and napalm.
Same problems here,along with, a great up-take of roof top solar, however in many areas it cannot besold to the grid without re-engineering the grid … who’s going to pay for that?The answer is to store your own generated electricity More Batteries!
ESG
EnvironmentalSocial Governance: given a lot of lip service but not yet taken seriously byanybody, the mantra currently ‘we want the cheapest supply, bugger theenvironment’. HOWEVER, this is the sleeping tool in the Gov. tool box, The Big Leaverto prevent Chinese Expansion and Domination of all things EV.
Gov. ‘Where did theNi, Co, Li, in that battery come from’? Where the workers properly paid orexploited? was there any Child Labour’.
Gov. ‘Sorry you ESGis not up-to standard’
‘you’re banned from our markets’
In Europe under EUrules, Gov. are not allowed to subsidise production for & into Export Market,another leaver that can be used against the Chinese.
With these leaversthe blatant exploitation of the environment and the Li & Ni markets by the Chinesecan be contained. A level playing field can be re-established, with the ethicalmining in a stable jurisdiction for the benefit of all: flourishing … Hmm, thatsounds a bit Socialist. It’s the Job of Capitalism to supply the Way and theMeans, the Job of Gov. to set the Rules, and enforce them. In Aus. we have theworlds most expensive work force, to keep that enviable position, exploitation,in all its forms whether environmental or human, needs to be Called Out…
If I have to go EV,I want to know it’s Very Green and I haven’t destroyed an Indonesian Island orkilled of the Mountain Gorillas guarding all the Co. in the Congo.
(20min delay)