LTR

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96.5¢ liontown resources limited

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GARETH78

8,153 Posts.

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27/03/24

16:40

Post #: 73087506
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Originally posted by yanlin: ↑

Whilst some of you are talking numbers, the ones I like to think about relate to the previous ALB offer price and what a potential revised (Gina or another) take over offer might look like (should one eventuate).
In terms of broad numbers, the original ALB offer translated to an in ground LCE valuation of circa US$750/t, calculated as follows:
Offer price of c.A$6b (or US$3.9b) for a resource of 211Mt at resource grade of 1.37% with an estimated 5.2Mt of contained LCE. Therefore, US$3.9b/ 5.2m LCE provides a previous valuation of US$750/t LCE.
Now, assuming a revised bid will be less than this amount, but still attractive enough to convince a majority of holders to sell, I expect a discount in the order of 10% to be realistic in order to get a deal approved.
As such, at a reduced in ground LCE price of say US$675/t (10% discount offer) that means a TO price would be circa A$2.23 per share [calculated as follows: (675 / 0.65) x 5.2M = A$5.4b / 2,423,248,523 (shares on issue)]
So, at a current share price of $1.14/ share I draw some comfort that - one day - someone may come along and throw a bid in at almost double the current price (give or take a bit). Now I know the probability of this occurring is sub 10%, there is still a possibility it may play out. This means I need to sit and be patient and not worry about the games the market players are currently entertaining themselves with. I can focus on other share market activities whilst this thing plays out...... maybe some of the more highly strung holders do the same. Let it happen!!

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$2.23 ?????

So are you saying those who walked away from the $3.00 - $3.20 that was offered on a plate made a big mistake??

Because 30% less is a hell of a hit.

Opportunity cost??

LTR Price at posting: $1.14 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 96.5¢		Change 0.050(5.46%)		Mkt cap ! $2.340B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
92.0¢	98.0¢	92.0¢	$15.00M	15.73M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	148095	96.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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7	187600	0.945
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ASX Today, page-39410

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

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ASX Today, page-39410

Top Stories

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Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

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