If you think a Trump presidency is benign for the EV industry, I think you have got that very wrong.
'Drill baby drill' Trump will dismantle (partially or in full) Biden's IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) and the subsidies that EVs receive.
If Trump wins this November, EV/Lithium space will feel the pressure What Trump promised oil CEOs as he asked them to steer $1 billion to his campaign
As Donald Trump sat with some of the country’s top oil executives at his Mar-a-Lago Club last month, one executive complained about how they continued to face burdensome environmental regulations despite spending $400 million to lobby the Biden administration in the last year.
Trump’s response stunned several of the executives in the room overlooking the ocean: You all are wealthy enough, he said, that you should raise $1 billion to return me to the White House. At the dinner, he vowed to immediately reverse dozens of President Biden’s environmental rules and policies and stop new ones from being enacted, according to people with knowledge of the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.
Giving $1 billion would be a “deal,” Trump said, because of the taxation and regulation they would avoid thanks to him, according to the people.
Trump’s remarkably blunt and transactional pitch reveals how the former president is targeting the oil industry to finance his reelection bid. At the same time, he has turned to the industry to help shape his environmental agenda for a second term, including rollbacks of some of Biden’s signature achievements on clean energy and electric vehicles.
The contrast between the two candidates on climate policy could not be more stark. Biden has called global warming an “existential threat,” and over the last three years, his administration has finalized more than 100 new environmental regulations aimed at cutting air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, restricting toxic chemicals, and conserving public lands and waters. In comparison, Trump has called climate change a “hoax,” and his administration weakened or wiped out more than 125 environmental rules and policies over four years.
In recent months, the Biden administration has raced to overturn Trump’s environmental actions and issue new ones before the November election. So far, Biden officials have overturned 27 Trump actions affecting the fossil fuel industry and completed at least 24 new actions affecting the sector, according to a Washington Post analysis. The Interior Department, for instance, recently blocked future oil drilling across 13 million acres of the Alaskan Arctic.
Yet oil giants will see an even greater windfall — helped by new offshore drilling, speedier permits and other relaxed regulations — in a second Trump administration, the former president told the executives over the dinner of chopped steak at Mar-a-Lago.
Trump vowed at the dinner to immediately end the Biden administration’s freeze on permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports — a top priority for the executives, according to three people present. “You’ll get it on the first day,” Trump said, according to the recollection of an attendee.
The roughly two dozen executives invited included Mike Sabel, the CEO and founder of Venture Global, and Jack Fusco, the CEO of Cheniere Energy, whose proposed projects would directly benefit from lifting the pause on new LNG exports. Other attendees came from companies including Chevron, Continental Resources, Exxon and Occidental Petroleum, according to an attendance list obtained by The Post.Oil well pump jacks operated by Chevron in San Ardo, Calif. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News)
Trump told the executives that he would start auctioning off more leases for oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, a priority that several of the executives raised. He railed against wind power, as The Post previously reported. And he said he would reverse the restrictions on drilling in the Alaskan Arctic.
“You’ve been waiting on a permit for five years; you’ll get it on Day 1,” Trump told the executives, according to the recollection of the attendee.
At the dinner, Trump also promised that he would scrap Biden’s “mandate” on electric vehicles — mischaracterizing ambitious rules that the Environmental Protection Agency recently finalized, according to people who attended. The rules require automakers to reduce emissions from car tailpipes, but they don’t mandate a particular technology such as EVs. Trump called the rules “ridiculous” in the meeting with donors.
The fossil fuel industry has aggressively lobbied against the EPA’s tailpipe rules, which could eat into demand for its petroleum products. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, an industry trade group, has launched a seven-figure campaign against what it calls a de facto “gas car ban.” The campaign includes ads in battleground states warning that the rule will restrict consumer choice.
“Clearly, if you are producing gasoline and diesel, you want to make sure that there’s enough market there,” said Stephen Brown, an energy consultant and a former lobbyist for Tesoro, an oil refining company. “I don’t know that the oil industry would walk in united with a set of asks for the Trump administration, but I think it’s important for this issue to get raised.”
Although the repeal of the EPA rule would benefit the fossil fuel industry, it would probably anger the auto industry, which has invested billions of dollars in the transition away from gasoline-powered cars. Many automakers are under increasing pressure to sell more EVs in Europe, which has tightened its own tailpipe emissions rules, and they are eager to avoid a patchwork of regulations around the globe.
“Automakers need some degree of regulatory certainty from government,” said John Bozzella, president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Toyota and other car companies.
“What has emerged instead is a wholesale repeal … and then reinstatement … and then repeal again of regulations every four or eight years,” Bozzella said in an email.
Biden’s EV policies have also sparked opposition in Republican-led rural states such as North Dakota, where there are far more oil pump jacks than charging stations. A key figure leading the Trump campaign’s development of its energy policy is North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), who has been talking extensively to oil donors and CEOs.
At a fundraiser on Saturday in Palm Beach, Fla., Burgum told donors that Trump would halt Biden’s “attack” on fossil fuels, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by The Post.
“What would be the No. 1 thing that President Trump could do on Day 1? It’s stop the hostile attack against all American energy, and I mean all,” Burgum said. “Whether it’s baseload electricity, whether it’s oil, whether it’s gas, whether it’s ethanol, there is an attack on liquid fuels.”
Burgum also criticized the Biden administration’s policies on gas stoves and vehicles with internal combustion engines, claiming that they would prevent consumers from buying both technologies. While the Energy Department recently set new efficiency standards for gas stoves, they would not affect the stoves in people’s kitchens or those currently on the market.
“They’ve got some liberal idea about what products we need,” Burgum said. “You all need EV cars. You don’t need internal combustion. We’ll decide what kind of car you’re going to drive, and we’re going to regulate the other ones out of business. I mean, it’s just in every industry, not just in cars, not just in energy. They’re telling people what stoves you can buy. This is not America.”
The Biden campaign initially declined to comment for this article. After it was published, however, Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa said in a statement that “Donald Trump is selling out working families to Big Oil for campaign checks. It’s that simple.”
“It doesn’t matter to Trump that oil and gas companies charge working families and middle-class Americans whatever they want while raking in record profits — if Donald can cash a check, he’ll do what they say,” Moussa added.
Burgum — a possible contender to lead the Energy Department in a second Trump term — has pushed harder to address climate change than many other Republicans. He set a goal in 2021 for North Dakota — the third-largest oil-producing state — to become carbon-neutral by 2030. He has stressed, however, that the goal won’t be achieved via government mandates or the elimination of fossil fuels, and he has cultivated deep support among oil donors.
Despite Trump’s huge fundraising ask, oil donors and their allies have yet to donate hundreds of millions to his campaign. They have contributed more than $6.4 million to Trump’s joint fundraising committee in the first three months of this year, according to an analysis by the advocacy group Climate Power. Oil billionaire Harold Hamm and others are scheduling a fundraiser for Trump later this year, advisers said, where they expect large checks to flow to his bid to return to office.
One person involved in the industry said many oil executives wanted Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or another Republican to challenge Biden. But now that Trump is the nominee, this person said, they are going to embrace his policies and give.
Dan Eberhart, chief executive of the oil-field services company Canary and a Trump donor, said the Republican onslaught of donations was not surprising.
“Biden constantly throws a wet blanket to the oil and gas industry,” Eberhart said. “Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ philosophy aligns much better with the oil patch than Biden’s green-energy approach. It’s a no-brainer.”
Alex Witt, a senior adviser for oil and gas with Climate Power, said Trump’s promise is he will do whatever the oil industry wants if they support him. With Trump, Witt said, “everything has a price.”
“They got a great return on their investment during Trump’s first term, and Trump is making it crystal clear that they’re in for an even bigger payout if he’s reelected,” she said.
John Muyskens contributed to this report.
“Scrap the IRA outright” Trump signals major overhaul of Biden energy policy.
Former President Donald Trump, if successful in reclaiming the presidency in the U.S. elections next November, is expected to completely dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a key policy of ‘Bidenomics’ (Joe Biden + Economics). This could potentially harm global companies, including those in South Korea, that have significantly increased their investments in anticipation of tax and subsidy benefits under the IRA.
According to major foreign media outlets on the 22nd (local time), Trump’s camp announced that if they reclaim power, they will thoroughly review America’s climate and energy policies. Specifically, the plan is to immediately scrutinize the IRA, which includes tax and subsidy benefits amounting to $369 billion (approximately 480 trillion KRW). The new energy policy will focus on deregulating the fossil fuel industry and increasing investments, while retracting subsidies for transitioning to electric vehicles.
A senior official from the Trump camp stated, “We will maximize fossil fuel production,” and added, “The price tag associated with the IRA has been grossly underestimated. We are reviewing massive spending triangles.”
The IRA, introduced last August, is a law that provides substantial tax and subsidy benefits for electric vehicles assembled in North America. It is one of the most significant achievements of President Biden, along with the Semiconductor Support Act (CSA). However, former President Trump has opposed the IRA, calling it “the largest tax increase in history.” He argued that the Biden administration’s renewable energy expansion policy is damaging his own policy aimed at energy independence and rising gasoline prices. In a recent election campaign video, Trump criticized, “American energy is vulnerable, poor, and expensive because it depends on wind power. Wind turbines are rusty, corroded, and kill birds.”
The stark contrast between the two former presidents on the direction of U.S. energy policy is leading to increased policy uncertainty. While President Biden is accelerating carbon neutrality by expanding renewable energy, former President Trump has pledged to deregulate the use of fossil fuels.
The ‘Project 2025’ report by the Heritage Foundation, a U.S. conservative think tank, which serves as a draft of ‘Trump’s second-term pledges,’ includes the dissolution of many institutions needed to carry out Biden’s energy policy, including a loan program office that supports the decarbonization industry with $400 billion (approximately 520 trillion KRW).
If former President Trump is successful in his re-election next year, global electric vehicle and battery companies, including those in South Korea, that have been aggressively expanding their investments in the U.S. in anticipation of IRA benefits, are expected to inevitably suffer. The White House recently announced that since the inauguration of the Biden administration in January 2021, investments from the Asia-Pacific region, facilitated by the enactment of the IRA and CSA, have reached $200 billion (approximately 260 trillion KRW). Particularly, Korean companies’ investments account for at least $55 billion (approximately 72 trillion KRW), over a quarter of the total investments from the Asia-Pacific region.
Currently, the sentiment of Americans leans towards former President Trump, so there is a significant possibility that the tax and subsidy benefits of the IRA may be abolished or drastically reduced. According to a presidential poll released by Emerson College the day before, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, former President Trump leads with 47% support, beating President Biden (43%).
However, some argue that it would be realistically difficult for former President Trump to completely dismantle the IRA even if he is successful in his re-election. The argument is that it would be hard to gain congressional approval for the abolition of the IRA, given that the investment and employment effects of the IRA are concentrated in Republican-dominated areas.
Dan Brouillette, who served as the Energy Secretary under the Trump administration, said, “Former President Trump will prove to be much more moderate than some environmental activists fear if he successfully reclaims the presidency.” He added, “The next Republican president will recognize that the positive aspects of the IRA should be maintained.” He also noted, “The IRA includes incentives to continue nuclear power development, which is completely aligned with former President Trump’s policy and is expected to continue.”
AND this below from my mid March post on Its Over thread.
...this article may be 5 months old, but clearly demonstrates the winds of change that has and will impact EV growth ahead.
...lithium stock holders better hope Trump does not win the presidency. He does not understand EVs, calls it hoax, and likes them as much as he likes Facebook (which he calls "the enemy of the people"). Elon Musk being the ungrateful b*stard that he is despite what Biden has helped him, will find himself being a loser under a Trump administration.
...and UK has wound back earlier plans to ban sale of ICE vehicles by 5 years.
...as I continue researching EV, it is becoming clearer to me that previous lithium demand projections based on earlier unbridled EV growth projections needs a complete re-work. Lithium supply surplus could run longer than just 1 year that optimistic analyst now have it. They haven't yet worked out what happens when Trump removes the subsidies away from EV towards oil, nor the additional supply coming out of DLE USA. Trump is attacking electric vehicles. Automakers already bet their future on them
By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN
6 minute read
Updated 6:30 PM EDT, Fri September 29, 2023
New YorkCNN —
The auto industry has announced more than $100 billion in electric car investments, creating more than 100,000 American jobs. A second Donald Trump presidency could derail the push.
Despite Former President Donald Trump’s claims at a Detroit rally Wednesday that EVs are “too expensive” and “don’t go far enough,” consumers are increasingly demanding EVs because of falling costs, a wider variety of vehicle availability, and a flood of government and manufacturing investments.
But EV adoption has been slow – just 7.2% of the market last quarter, up from 5.7% the same time a year prior, according to Cox Automotive. Organic demand alone probably isn’t enough to justify automakers’ massive investments in EV technology.
That’s why automakers are counting on Biden administration incentives to give consumer demand an artificial boost. Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency is pushing for EVs to account for up to two-thirds of new cars sold in the US by 2032 through a combination of tax incentive carrots and miles-per-gallon-floor sticks.
Without these carrots and sticks, which Trump wants to reverse, US automakers’ plans will likely blow up.
“The possibility of a sudden shift [of policy] would be pretty shocking for the industry to absorb,” said Barry Rabe, a professor of public policy and environmental policy at the University of Michigan. “I can’t imagine the industry is going to want to be jerked back and forth every four or eight years.”
And while Trump may denounce EVs, many lawmakers in his party are capitalizing on these investments and welcoming the transition. More than half of new clean energy projects announced since passage of the IRA have been located in GOP-led districts.
Georgia has seen the most EV jobs announced and is home to major factories from established manufacturers like Hyundai and Kia to EV upstarts like Rivian. The state’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has pledged to make Georgia the “electric mobility capital” of the country. Automakers’ future
Automakers have announced more than $120 billion in EV investments and 143,000 new US jobs in the last eight years, with more than 40% of those investments happening since the passage of the IRA, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.
Battery plants from US and foreign automakers like Nissan and Mercedes-Benz are being built in states like Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama.
Legacy automakers are pivoting to electric vehicles in response to expected strong consumer demand, tougher environmental regulations both from US states and foreign countries, and a push from Wall Street.
Investors have made Tesla by far the most valuable automaker on the planet, despite having only a fraction of other major automakers’ sales, and other automakers are jealously eyeing its stock market growth.
Electric vehicles have outpaced growth of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in recent years. More than 50% of shoppers were interested in buying an EV, according to a Cox survey this summer. Fifty-three perecent of consumers said that EVs will eventually replace ICE-powered vehicles.
As a result of consumer demand and regulations, General Motors has set a goal of phasing out the sale of all internal combustion vehicles by 2035, and Ford has said it hopes EVs make up almost half of its sales by 2030. GM even changed its logo to look like an electrical plug.
“For a major manufacturer to bet that the future of transportation is ICE-powered vehicles seems like a tougher and tougher case to make,” said Rabe. Biden’s EV strategy
The Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act included billions of dollars in government loans to the automakers to fund their plans to build EV battery plants. Consumers can get up to $7,500 back in tax credits on US-made EVs.
The administration’s separate infrastructure bill provides $7.5 billion to fund a network of charging stations to power EVs.
These incentives are designed to lower the cost of buying and manufacturing EVs in the United States.
Legacy US automakers are behind Tesla and Chinese manufacturers in the EV race, and they need those subsidies to remain competitive, experts say.
“We find ourselves behind in battery technology. If we want to maintain competitiveness in the industry, we have to invest to make gains and catch up,” said Jon McNeill, the co-founder of DVx Ventures and former president at Tesla. McNeill is on the Board of General Motors. “If we let up on the accelerator, we may cede the industry. That’s not good for any American,” McNeill said. Trump’s plan to roll back EVs
Trump clashed with automakers during his tenure in the White House.
While in office, Trump upended the auto industry by proposing to replace Obama-era fuel standards with a plan that called for substantially lower annual increases.
Trump also relaxed air pollution and mileage regulations. But automakers bucked Trump and agreed to meet tougher standards set by California rather than the Trump administration’s rules.
Now, Trump wants the EV push halted.
At a Detroit battery plant Wednesday, Trump said America didn’t need what the factory produced.
“This plant, we just walked through this plant and the electric vehicles are gonna put [automakers] out of business,” Trump said. “They don’t need any of this. The things that you make in Michigan, they don’t need any of it.”
Writing on Truth Social this past weekend, Trump said electric vehicles are a “hoax” and “all of these cars are going to be made in China.” Trump claims the EV pivot will destroy the US auto industry and kill jobs.
Some autoworkers have expressed concerns about the EV transition. Trump spoke to non-union workers in Michigan on Wednesday and played up those fears.
Trump has pledged to reverse the Environmental Protection Agency’s ambitious new car pollution rules that could require electric vehicles to account for up to two-thirds of new cars sold in the US by 2032. And a Trump presidency could also make it more difficult for consumers to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit for EVs contained in the Inflation Reduction Act and turn off billions of dollars in grants and loan guarantees the Biden administration has given to companies to boost EV technology.
Trump’s proposals could undermine US companies’ EV investments and hand over control of an increasingly EV future to foreign manufacturers. Anger in UK
Developments in the UK offer a preview to how US automakers may oppose any efforts by Trump to slow the transition to EVs.
The UK government said last week it would delay a ban on the sale of new gas and diesel cars by five years, from 2030 to 2035, angering automakers who warned the move would undermine the industry’s efforts to switch to electric vehicles.
“We are going to ease the transition to electric vehicles,” said UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
But automakers said the delay would cause confusion.
“Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment, and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three,” Ford UK chair Lisa Brankin said in a statement.
Stellantis, which owns the Fiat, Peugeot and Citroën brands, echoed the call for clarity and said it was committed to achieving 100% zero emission new car and van sales in the UK by the end of the decade.
LTR Price at posting:
$1.41 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)