At current prices, no they will be negative.Their cost estimates...

At current prices, no they will be negative.

Their cost estimates are based on a long term average (10 years). That's currently about $550usd. The first few years will likely be double, if not more, espcially during ramp up.

They may sell 300mt of Spod next financial year which may net them between $900 to $1,100 USD p/t depending on if that get sc6 or not.

So the simple math is they need costs to be well below 900USD p/t to make money, which seems extremely unlikely.

I'd estimate they have about $250mil of contigency available by the time they are ramping, which means they will be broke in 12 months if their costs aren't under $800usd p/t.

Lenders are going to be after them well before that though, as they dont really have any security that's worth anything. This is why I say a big equity raise is only around the corner. They can't afford to wait to deliver all this bad news.