I don't want to repeat the same things over and over again. @Process1 has already put all the facts in his post. All I can say is LTR is now in prime position. No doubt about it.
I recommend everyone to make their own research but not to listen to the media and those manipulator reports by the financial instos belongs to the BEOT about EV sales. Those are not telling the truth. Elon Musk is always saying the same thing. He said this yesterday.
You need to follow the EV and battery specialised web sites, to check out the monthly EV sales, battery sales, to see what's the growth rate of EV and battery sales, battery gigafactory projects, climate change, and everything in the world related to energy demand and transition. Then you can make your calculation to see how much lithium needs the world for this year and coming couple of years.
It's very simple. I explained all that before; the world demand was 1mt LCE in 2023. The growth rate of EV sales will be at least 30% in 2024. (We are not counting the ESS -Energy Storage System sales growth rate here. It's going to be huge in coming years).
Then the demand for LCE is going to be at least 1.3mt in 2024.
I explained the rest before. It's not possible for China to match the new demand increase which is 300kt of LCE from lepidolite and Zimbabwean resources.
Why do we see the lithium price too low then? Just be patient. In the 2nd half of 2023 the Chinese lithium supply chain destocked completely. They had a huge stock in every segment of supply chain. They used it in the last 12 months and nearly finished it now. The lithium market was normally slow in the first 6 months of the year. It's ordinary. It's because the LCE demand in first 6 months of every year is only 1/3 of total demand in that year. The 2/3 of demand comes in the 2nd half of the year. We will see how the lithium price goes from now on.
I'm sure Chinese government is helping by subsidising the all lithium extraction and refining companies in China and Zimbabwe. Even some of them are state owned lithium companies (as in Zimbabwe). EU has already identified that and stated it on their reports, hence the increased import tariffs.
However the Western supply chain is now building up its own supply chain and trying to be independent of Chinese supply chain. That's not going to happen overnight bit that's going to happen in next 2 to 3 years. LTR is at the cornerstone of that. There is no other lithium producer in the world who does not have a connection to China other than LTR.
There is a tricky point here. If Chinese government sees that point they will get the lithium price increased soon. Because if the Chinese keeps the lithium price down, the western lithium supply chain will have the the opportunity to have low lithium price as well. LG now has that advantage. If the lithium price will so low LG will get cheap and very high quality lithium and will be very competitive against Chinese. Same for other Korean battery producers; Samsung and SKI, Japanese Panasonic, European Northvolt, etc... Making battery is a high tech production and not much labour intense. So the western lithium supply chain will be able to compete with Chinese lithium supply chain after they get their tech and capital investment matured in next couple of years.
China only has the advantage of controlling the lithium supply chain atm but I'm sure they are observing how much the western lithium supply chain advances. I think they will do something interesting to stop it if they can. I don't think they will.
I'm also sure that the story of LTR is being observed very carefully by the Chinese. The ESG thing is so much important. Many of the lithium investors can't see its importance now, however it will be a very issue in the next couple of years again. I mean ESG thing will be a very obstacle in front of Chinese lithium supply chain. LTR is far more ahead of everyone on that matter.
I'm 100% confident of my investment in LTR now after the LG "strategic partnership" is signed.
"Strategic partnership" with LG is very important. Just think about it a little bit more. I won't give more details here because other posters mentioned about it.
LTR is a unique company. It has no problem now. LG deal confirmed by $379m investment (in convertible notes) that it's share price is min $1.80.
Btw, I'm not anchored to any price, neither $1.80 or $3. I will hold tight and see where it goes.
As @Process1 stated it's lithium spod production will be around 6.3%. We will have a low production cost and higher sales price for that regardless of the spot market price.
Our offtake partner's are first class.
Let's just watch the EV and battery sales, battery gigafactory projects, climate change, and everything in the world related to energy demand and transition. Do not listen to the media and those manipulator reports by the financial instos belongs to the BEOT.
I have a great faith in Tim Goyder and his team. They are doing their best for all of us.
LTR Price at posting:
91.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)