I never believe whatever Fastmarkets says. The people working for those forecaster companies don't have the knowledge to make those analysis seriously. I met the analysts of Roskill (Now Wood McKenzie) in Perth in 2019. They were all very young guys (some of them Chinese girls). When I saw they knew nothing about the lithium projects in Australia I was surprised.
Those type of guys are just trying to keep their jobs and creating some ideas which right or wrong. They don't spend all of their times by making analysis like us because they do not have a considerable interest in the sector they are working in.
Making accurate analysis requires a lot of knowledge, experience and dedication with your money and mind.
I was recently talking about Luke Smith, the head of AusSuper fund. He is in the critical minerals, especially in lithium sector for very long time, nearly 10 years. I'm sure he knows every detail about the lithium supply chain as an analyst. He is like us, he has a vast interest in this market as his success matter a lot for him. He has a lot of knowledge, experience and dedication with his fund's money and mind like us.
"AusSuper sets sights on becoming a global force in critical minerals" May 20, 2024
How much he knows you may ask. Well, see the news below. He will give an interview in Mines and Money forum in Sydney in Oct 28 according to the website.
Attention to his topic: "The Dynamic Lithium Cost Curve and What it Means for Price"
How many of GS, JPM, MS, Fastmarkets, etc analyst can do analysis on cost curves of lithium production? And translate it to price? Non of them IMO.
Because AusSuper increased its stake in PLS just recently (Now around 8.35% - around $1b) that means Luke Smith sees the value in PLS even at these low lithium prices and predicts a shiny future for lithium. And just consider that PLS is a higher cost producer than LTR with inferior product.
Then consider what is going to happen to LTR soon.
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