You say: The LTR market cap simply reflects the current ~$770/t for SC6 and the complete uncertainty about LTR's unit costs until management finally air the dirty laundry over the next few quarters.
That doesn't explain the massive valuation gap LTR vs. PLS to me. More is going on.
There is a bit of uncertainty around actual cost ramp-up and steady state vs. what's in the DFS. Also there is a bit of uncertainty around actual prices achieved. But the few price and cost uncertainties that exist at the present time for LTR are in the percentage point range – not the 4x market cap difference to PLS. Clearly it needs ot rerate.
Revenue uncertainties Clearly PLS has a track record of pricing, so do others like Sigma. And these prices are linked to spot prices. LTR's formula will be similar. Even if we don't know the precise formula and can't yet calculate $ per ton based on a quarterly, blind Freddy can see that LTR won't be getting half the $ / t that PLS is getting.
Cost uncertainties Again, LTR's DFS has clear statements about cost. Yes, ramp-up has risks and they may be off by a bit, but not by the orders of magnitude that the market cap gap suggests. So it just doesn't make much sense to me to point to some "dirty laundry" that LTR's management is somehow keeping secret on this front to explain the current share price, and gap to reality.
Look no further than the 1 share transactions at the end of yesterday's trading day, obviously designed to manipulate closing prices.
LTR Price at posting:
81.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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