Hi
@nugett,
Indeed, I have been away on business but I'm thrilled to see your concern for my welfare!
I have been catching up on the recent movement for LTR and must I say, this is great accumulation time - let me elaborate.
Recap:To recap on the recent changes the last couple days:
- Almost no change to the lithium carbonate and spodumene SC6 (Australia) pricing - very slightly lower but negligible.
- LTR production surpasses 10,000t spodumene concentrate at 5.2% Li2O, (someone mentioned this is already better than PLS) - This also sounds like commercial production to me, so Tesla will be happy, and ready long before the December 2024 deadline.
- The short seller manipulated share-price is down approximately 20%.
- A bunch of posts from illiterate short sellers and journalists that do not know how to convert AUD to USD have created some misleading posts.
In summary, despite another big achievement for LTR today and further de-risking, there hasn't really been much of a fundamental shift to report on.
LTR is Actually Number OneI have corrected the chart which was published by Citi Research for some figures that actually do make some sense. I am not sure how they can justify those figures which do not seem to be rooted in any fact. After making adjustments per my reasoning below, it places LTR as the number one lithium producer in Australia which operates with the most profit at current lithium pricing - If you disagree, please explain why.
- Production Cost - Firstly, let's get this right. We are talking about USD not AUD, our estimates place us at an average cost of $651 AUD or $437 USD. Whilst ramp up costs may be higher than this during the initial phases of production, LTR has a significant stockpile of ore which greatly reduces costs as mining is the largest factor of production cost. Due to this, I have attributed no change and kept this as $437 USD as we move through into 2025FY.
- Freight, Royalties & Other Costs - Secondly, the original assessment by Citi Research shows a relatively marginal amount allocated for this, which is actually lower than any other lithium producer listed. I have decreased this very slightly to adjust for the lower associated costs in production, basically no change.
- Growth Expenditure - Thirdly, as I have previously stated, LTR's plant has built-in capacity for expansion, offering a low-cost pathway for growth. With most circuits already prepared for expansion and ongoing improvements like ore sorting, future optimisations will require minimal capital, enhancing throughput and profitability. Whoever prepared the original assessment at Citi Research is clearly not aware that the costs required for an expansion with LTR will be very minimal. Due to this, I have greatly reduced the amount allocated towards "Growth Expenditure". Furthermore, this is an optional cost and not actually required - it's odd this was included as Citi Research did not provide this figure in their historic reporting of same.
With this being said, it places LTR as the best lithium producer in Australia. Furthermore, this actually strengthens LTR's case and with the share price decline lately, I can only see this as an opportunity to accumulate more stock in what seems to be a very good Company trading far below its intrinsic value.
As always, I have and will continue to accumulate more of this stock.
Kind regards,
CK
(20min delay)