Hey there,
Am a tad confused. Bear with me because I understand that over 100 people agreed with your post and at this point 33 strongly agreed.
It seemed to me that
@dynofish was attempting to share his assessment through to the end of this financial year, yet you believed he has overestimated mining costs. He believed it to be conservative (I won't begrudge him that claim), yet you claim he has overstated costs. Are you suggesting that in order to check the financial position at EOFY one should assume LTR will only mine enough ore to fulfill 230kt of production and have none sitting on the ROM pad come July 2025?
I understand you believe there is enough ore floating about the site to produce 100kt, but surely LTR will continue to mine to feed the plant post EOFY. Your reduction is quite direct (230kt-100kt). Perhaps I would be less confused were you to suggest a reduced level of mining due to the levels of stockpiled ore.
From my perspective, I anticipate, all going well at the plant, that mining must increase, and as such dyno's figure should be higher to ensure 3 months+ ROM ore. There is however a possibility that LTR will produce to meet demand during this phase of rampup. Some might call that discrete moderation.
Diving into your calculations of ore, I notice you claim (without knowing grade) that 216kt of clean ore will produce around 40kt of SC. That would indeed be an exceptional performance from any plant in it's rampup year. One might say, unbelievable. You further appear to combine all listed ore to a total of 527kt and apply a very similar ratio to get to your 100kt.
Now the ore sorting plant that managed to sort only a resulting 11kt in over 2 months - how much of the 251kt that was waiting for it at the start of the financial year, will it be able to process in a 12 month period and how much of the 251kt will be left post sorting?
I am reminded the positives of Hotcopper by your post. I came here today to look into LTR for what I may have overlooked. I probably wouldn't have questioned the capability of the sorter if not for your extremely positive post. Thankyou.
(20min delay)