A good rise, now a pause, something not right?.
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From a weekly perspective, LTR had very good gains, moved fr 74 to 83.5, around 12.5% gain. Bu som may be disappointed, as we reached 92.5, and have lost a bit from there.
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So what is happening? Turbulent times. Volatility has increased considerably. Greed and fear alternating. Punters confused. US Li stocks had a reasonable increase. Most stocks around 40 %above their lows, and they have kept the gain they made recently. ASX Li stocks doing the same. Chinese Li stocks were lagging previously. So they did 3 consecutive 10% increase days. Caught up to others. After that they had to hold like US Li. But they are not playing the game. Lost 10% yesterday. Another 6 to 8% today. So not a good sign. I have always said that for sustained increase, we need all Li stocks to go in tandem. As I have been writing, we cannot have a party, without Chinese Li stocks. They can lag for short periods, but then have to catch up. But they are playing truant again. Not completely given up the gain, but looking very vulnerable. So now we have a question mark on the rally. Next few days may provide more than direction, but a caution sign has been given.
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LTR too is playing the macro. And playing like most ASX Li stocks. Reached high, like 92.5, but now waiting for confirmation. So gave up some gain. But still over 40% from its low. So still a decent play. I think we need to cross 100 to bury the weak signs. But we may need the help of macro.
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Personally I did not like the Chinese play. I play trading pattern, number, etc, and something didn't look right to me. So I let go half of my LTR shares at average 87 Last week I wrote my buy average was 70, so just over 25% gain, not much, but I was playing macro and managing my risks I didn't like some signs. Will be happy to buy back soon, even higher, if signs are good. I know most here are long term and anyone who sells, like me, for whatever reason, is not someone wants to see. My play is different, I try to minimise my loss, may not be the best play, so if possible, understand how I play. I know most gains are made by holding long, but I have always written I trade a portion of my holding. I could have got it wrong, so please dyor. I sometimes receive flak when I say I have sold a few, but as most can understand, my play is completely insignificant to what happens to share price. The reason I write is that every stock I write, I write when I buy, with price, when I sell with price. Not sure why I do, with hope that it may help someone,
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So what may happen next week? A lot depends on tonight. Till now, from bottom, the play has been that US Li stocks have taken the lead, went ahead, and kept the gain. Chinese Li stocks have then caught up. Last week, ALB was pushed down whole week, but it held 94. And then bang on Friday, it moved to 102. Same play this week. Whole week has been pushed down, but has held 102, even when Chinese stocks dropped 10% yesterday. We need another bang, maybe tonight, and straight to 110+, more importantly, above my number 106. Chinese stocks can catch up next week. Will that happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)