This TO talk on here is nonsense. A while ago I posted some...

This TO talk on here is nonsense.

A while ago I posted some valuations on here and current SP is actually at the NPV of your scoping study - refer Post #: 51260846 if want to know. The biggest value here is in production, where you move from NPV valuations to EPS/PE outcomes and a lot here are confusing the two. Right now LTR valuation IMO is driven by NPV as against nominal EPS/PE metrics. If you want to know a TO price now as off today before construction go to your NPV SS study hydroxide. That NPV is $4.8 billion. At today's shares on issue that equates to about $2.50 a share, but here is the crux that NPV is the outcome after capex spend (an assumed in production is how NPV is derived) and that assumes that who does the TO doesn't want a NPV benefit of itself - meaning it passes the full NPV to the owner of the resource. So if TO now need to deduct the $1 billion capex spend from NPV for a buyer as that becomes in effect a capex spend, because who does the TO needs to spend that amount and so if paid $2.50 a share NPV would become negative because of the fact they have to pay the capex as well. So in a TO scenario lodged today the NPV hypothetically becomes to $3.8 billion, or $2 a share. Add the fact a TO is undertaken at 50% to 100% premium on the SP at date of TO that makes SP today at fair value in the order of $1 to $1.30. Get the drift, if you are been set up for TO the SP will stay where it is - the learning from KDR, noting we are talking passing for NPV benefit to LTR, meaning you may not even get that. That is why KDR didn't get what shareholders think should have gotten - that is how TO work on NPV before construction/DFS etc etc.

At the end of the day it is in production value is absolutely maximised- ask PLS holders. Now, in production, LTR is worth a lot more is the point if it meets DFs objectives. The other point, is the valuations on here are either on a higher configuration to 2mtpa ore feed facility - if producing spodumene alone - or are at the view LTR will produce hydroxide.

Now to the other point - I posted on Jadar in this thread. What drives Jadar is actually the other product people forget to mention been boric acid and Rio dominates that market, infact absolutely dominates the boric acid market. The lithium is what people seem to focus on Jadar but forget the boric acid. If people want to actually understand this project refer here in a peer comparison thread I posted in - Post #: 54851706

Ditto for that other project mentioned on here - phosphate drives that economics and phosphate is used as a fertiliser.

Now, there is one entity actually stating they may do more acquisitions and that is MRL/Albermale who a lot of you have not even looked at if believe TO, albeit I suspect likelihood is JV here for LTR. From and need to google the underline which is a AFR article Mining: Lithium giant’s lament over labour shortages, cost blowouts in WA amid COVID


All IMO and probably some may have an issue with this post. As to a comment I read on here that NPVs are conservative - no they are not (ask PLS and AJM and even Gorgon and other LNG producers). Most NPV in a DFS don't come to being because of such things as construction blow out costs, but that doesn't matter because in production move to EPS and PE ratios (ask PLS again). So if we are talking NPV it may come in or may not - it is not conservative, and the reason why many confuse it is NPV is about opportunity cost of capital which should not be confused with in production outcomes as they pertain to SP been the nominal metrics of EPS and PE ratios. NPV is about people ranking projects and that is what opportunity cost of capital is all about. The same considerations apply for all projects including those I am invested in as well.

Also in the thread where I talk Jadar, the last post I posted on that thread talks about number of spodumene mines required for the increased EV demand as forecasts increase. All the best, and personally too many of you focus on day to day SP movements. Just get this to production and you will all be heavily rewarded IMO. Your management have been talking about taking this to production from day dot, which I have stated on here too so this TO talk on these threads is quite strange and always has been.

Wonder how many negative replies I will receive. You have all done well - enjoy a beer etc.

All IMO