Just to add to the post, my timeline is from first production.
If you go back to the DFS they were effectively using a 12 month ramp up from first production - the project back then was slated to start at 2.5mtpa ore feed capacity and then have an upgrade to 4mtpa in 2028. As we know, early last year they decided to rescope the project to commence at 3mtpa, instead of 2.5mtpa.
For the last year or so plus, LTR has been ore stockpiling and the
previous DFS forecast had first concentrate production first half 2024 - you can see in the graph in the DFS that after a year they are at 2.5mtpa - i.e. at full production after first production starts.
LTR is now advising first concentrate production around 2nd or 3rd quarter 2024 - refer
Post #:72600235. So by the end of 2025 you should certainly be at full production. LTR is advising dry commissioning is happening on certain units, i.e. the dry commissioning stage on various units - but to repeat full production is actually 9 - 12 months from first concentrate (and that doesn't happen until the 3rd quarter of this year, as the wet commissioning stage is slated to start sometime in the 2nd quarter of 2024). The way they intend commissioning doesn't seem unreasonable btw - even if you were 100% confident everything works on spec you would slowly ramp up to full production. All the work has already gone into the process flowsheet through the METs so they would be confident that only minor tweaking (and that doesn't mean capex spend btw), if anything may occur (see below)
Ramp up to 4mtpa in the previous DFS was slated for 2028 - now likely earlier (anyway they are starting at 3mtpa now).
Now, dry commissioning, first wet production and then ramp up, does take time as we all know - when you commission a project you start the ramp up stage slowly to ensure everything is working on spec. It also allows you to in particular ensure that:
1. the SAG/ interaction with griding are working correctly on spec, or at worse minor adjustments in flowrates are required (i.e. it allows you to test the flowrate);
2. you accurately determine (or can properly adjust in process) the correct mix of ore feed to ensure that you are getting the correct feedstock into the floatation circuits, been at P80 of 106microns into that circuit;
3. your floatation and filtration circuits in the WOF process are working on spec, and that you know how to adjust the 'reagents' used in floatation to meet targeted output.
4. l
iberation of the spodumene/lithium from the ore works as planned (and verified by the METs) so that you can/split the lithium/deleterious elements appropriately to allow magnetic separation and floatation to work effectively and produce the required grade of concentrate. (After liberation and before magnetic separation you want to limit deleterious elements remaining/sticking to the lithium.)Obviously there is more to the process flowsheet that you are testing in commissioning, but the points above are the key items.
From the Nov 2021 DFS when the initial nameplate was 2.5mtpa.
My post of the other day still remains valid - the key risk for LTR is ensuring recovery rates are met as that is a key to costs -
Post #:73137973You won't speed up the commissioning stage is my point.
As a final point, if you achieve the 80% recovery rate, and the ore going into the plant grades 1.5% Li20, then your 6% concentrate produced would be 600,000 tonnes. Grade is a key component to what you produce on the other side, and having low deleterious elements is important when it comes to achieving recovery rates IMO - refer embedded post above.
All IMO
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