Really? Are these the commentators that have been saying this is...

Really? Are these the commentators that have been saying this is the year for zinc for the last few years? It must be nice to finally see prices breaking higher so they don't have to keep changing dates on the same bullish research reports. Im sure they are really confident about the supply side as well....

China have the dominant position in zinc, when this is the case for a commodity I have found commentators underestimate or completely ignore the flexibility and potential of domestic Chinese supply to capture or recapture market share. Wood Mackenzie tips that idle Glencore and idle Chinese mines will restart (yes, idle mine capacity not projects) yet their projected deficit exceeds that for 2016? What? Zinc is not lithium, there is no exponential increase in demand out there so i can see how this works. On top of that what affect will higher silver prices have on old VMS mines, especially in Mexico which has not been mentioned.

Mine supply always catches up to changes in demand or in this case some removal of supply. So welcome to a good window of opportunity however i just don't buy into claims that this will not end in tears and oversupply (again), or that there is any structural deficits for the medium or long term.

Why compare IBG to the largest highest grade zinc mine in the world located in a mining friendly country? IBG is high capex low grade proxy on higher zinc prices, should do well though as rising tide lift all boats. Perhaps we get lucky and there is some coordination between Glencore, Teck, metal traders and the chinese to hold prices for their benefit for longer? This has already happened to a certain extent with production cuts. Or that there is further supply side issues that are not accounted for.

Suspect the highest gaining zinc stock could be one of the roughies like OVR or VAR. RDM is also worth a shout picking up leases around century.