ASX200 Morning call July 2nd

New month new year. I feel like I might just watch this day play out to get a feel and only trade if it looks really good.

Weekend trading was flat and only 20-30 point moves down on the FTSE,DAX,DOW. Gaps all closed this morning and then sold off which looks like negative order flow. The end of quarter sell at the close of trade on Friday on the DOW is normal and all indexes sold off into their respective close time which is normal closing any extreme gaps.

I have a closing gap on the asx at 6194-6196 area and is currently ticking at 6225 re-tested the lows at 6203. Buying a spike to the gap looks good if its trading 20 points above the gap at 10am also a reversal from 6174 should find some buyers. Really tempting to just get long above 6200 because Mondays are usually bullish, start of a new month and year but stops need to be below Fridays low.

The Bloomberg terminal has flagged some sort of emergency meeting from Merkel. No details yet but could unsettle EUR markets in early trade which will drag down the ASX if negative. (Updated, rescheduled for GMT morning so when Frankfurt opens)

High probability sell is from 6265, a spike up in the first 10 mins to 6243 is a sell for 10 points.

A buy reversal from 6174 in the first hour of trade for 10 - 15 points and a high probability buy from 6145

School holidays in QLD but I doubt think liquidity will be effected. NSW school holidays will be next week.

If I see anything setting up will let you know.



Weekend trade and Merkel Jitters