Efficient market theory - as developed by Eugene Fama describes more than just 'strong form' efficient. For balance, you should look at the model as a whole. I did say in my last post I was a believer in semi-strong efficient.
I think we can all agree that information is traded on as it is released to some degree (so it can't just be weak efficient). I think we can also agree, that macro factors influence the wider market (such as pessimism to China which impacts mining). This is why technical analysis has it's place in the wider investing community and is the basis for currency trading (marco-economics and TA). Going back to Bacci's point, the market derates or rates for a range of perceptions, such as management competence (or risk due to asymmetry of information or geopolitical issues), which is why a project with NPV of $100m may not add $100m to the MV of a company.
There are lots of factors that contribute to market's perception of fair value. You could argue they are wrong - as many here in TAP's case have. These differences of opinion after all, are what creates a market. But they are predicated on assumptions (such as risk) and it would be hubris to be 'sure' that inefficiency in the market has mispriced TAP, and not other factors such as what I have stated above.
TAP Price at posting:
52.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
