Mike WSA is on my watchlist. I like its huge potential. Like you...

Mike

WSA is on my watchlist. I like its huge potential. Like you I think the RSPT will either get substantially modified or not passed (perhaps due to a change of govt).

However, WSA is cheap one day, and cheaper the next.

It looks like there will be a double dip recession next year in the USA, possibly caused by credit contagion from Europe (and their own housing/property loans). In the meantime China is slowing and has stockpiled lots of commodities. It seems to me that commodity prices will continue to head down for a while (not sure if they will retest early 2009 lows).

The only commodity that might hold up is gold, but even this is risky in a full blown GFC. I am a holder of a lot of goldies which have fallen back quite a lot despite the Australian price of gold being over $1400.

I see no reason for buying any base metal companies at this stage. Even oil could retrace a lot lower in a GFC from its current lower level.

Look where WSA was in late 2008. I think it can go there again. One might buy WSA for a trade, for instance shortly before the next federal election on the hope there would be a bounce from a Liberal Party victory (highly spec).

If the Obama govt does another major stimulus package, along with China and Europe then commodities will get another bounce up. It seems best to listen to what the credit markets are saying.

loki