Tough couple of days on ye olde Far forum. It seems like all of...

Tough couple of days on ye olde Far forum. It seems like all of those with itchy trigger fingers were awaiting the next lot of good news to sell on the spike. When the spike was disappointing they opted to sell anyway and get off the rollercoaster.

In all honesty you would have to have a screw loose to invest a substantial amount in the oil market at the moment. Smart money generally comes when the bottom is in and the recovery is well on its way. The best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices and while this trough appears never ending; it is always darkest before the dawn.

Typically the big funds trade in a trend-following manner, which means that they tend to capture the middle part of market moves, but are often wrong at important market turning points. The nature of the large speculators’ trend following trading systems cause them, as a group, to bet most aggressively right before the trend reverses. As the old adage goes, “when everybody gets to one side of the boat, it usually tips over.” For this reason, large speculators become an effective contrary indicator when their aggregate trading positions reach extreme levels, either on the upside or the downside.

Here's a nice article with futures predictions and some graphs to help us all sleep a little bit better tonight:

http://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-long-term-2015-to-2025-data-and-charts

P.S. - Good to see you back Aqua - enjoying the new balanced approach.