Given the speed at which algos work I said to my self i need to have a method to quickly estimate a stocks worth to determine if i want to jump on the bandwagon of a shooting star stock. (Which usually lasts for 1 or 2 days)
I use a short cut discounted cash flow type method.
I know ALL EPS for 2018 was .99 cents, this was reported. Goldman Sachs have estimated EPS for 2019 at 1.43 and EPS for 2020 at 1.65.
Thus I can see growth to 2020 averaging say 30%, but its a risk business so i would apply a conservative multiplier of 20. ( which gives a 5% return.)
Thus I simply multiply 1.43 x 20 = 28.60. ( 1.43 / 28,60 = 5% return)
So i think at 30/9/2019 ALL is worth 28.60. Its trading at 24.74 so there is good upside.
Goldman Sach has a price target of 33.00. this suggests even bigger upside.
They could be using a multiplier of 23 which infers a return of 4% (1 divided by 23)
If you dont want to do this calculation you could join FN Arena and they report a panel of broker estimates for each stock + commentary. Its very good.
FN Arena give 1 month free trial.
I used to work for an EPCM company and have good memories of engineers raiding our (accountants) parties and drinking our beer. Then heading off to the next project. They had a great life.
Good hunting.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ALL
- at what price do you buy in?
at what price do you buy in?, page-188
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 31 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ALL (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$52.92 |
Change
0.910(1.75%) |
Mkt cap ! $33.45B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$52.75 | $53.10 | $52.30 | $53.35M | 1.010M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9539 | $52.80 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$52.94 | 3669 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9539 | 52.800 |
1 | 2079 | 52.760 |
1 | 1874 | 52.720 |
1 | 1490 | 52.690 |
1 | 400 | 52.400 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
53.050 | 583 | 1 |
53.100 | 184 | 1 |
53.130 | 102 | 2 |
53.140 | 2953 | 1 |
53.160 | 421 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ALL (ASX) Chart |