Given the speed at which algos work I said to my self i need to have a method to quickly estimate a stocks worth to determine if i want to jump on the bandwagon of a shooting star stock. (Which usually lasts for 1 or 2 days)
I use a short cut discounted cash flow type method.
I know ALL EPS for 2018 was .99 cents, this was reported. Goldman Sachs have estimated EPS for 2019 at 1.43 and EPS for 2020 at 1.65.
Thus I can see growth to 2020 averaging say 30%, but its a risk business so i would apply a conservative multiplier of 20. ( which gives a 5% return.)
Thus I simply multiply 1.43 x 20 = 28.60. ( 1.43 / 28,60 = 5% return)
So i think at 30/9/2019 ALL is worth 28.60. Its trading at 24.74 so there is good upside.
Goldman Sach has a price target of 33.00. this suggests even bigger upside.
They could be using a multiplier of 23 which infers a return of 4% (1 divided by 23)
If you dont want to do this calculation you could join FN Arena and they report a panel of broker estimates for each stock + commentary. Its very good.
FN Arena give 1 month free trial.
I used to work for an EPCM company and have good memories of engineers raiding our (accountants) parties and drinking our beer. Then heading off to the next project. They had a great life.
Good hunting.
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Last
$51.76 |
Change
0.660(1.29%) |
Mkt cap ! $32.66B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$51.10 | $51.88 | $50.96 | $38.34M | 742.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3369 | $51.74 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$51.97 | 3919 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3369 | 51.740 |
1 | 8671 | 51.510 |
1 | 1895 | 51.480 |
1 | 1709 | 51.440 |
1 | 1483 | 51.410 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
51.970 | 3919 | 3 |
51.980 | 1486 | 1 |
52.000 | 203 | 3 |
52.030 | 3479 | 1 |
52.080 | 3479 | 1 |
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