Given the speed at which algos work I said to my self i need to have a method to quickly estimate a stocks worth to determine if i want to jump on the bandwagon of a shooting star stock. (Which usually lasts for 1 or 2 days)
I use a short cut discounted cash flow type method.
I know ALL EPS for 2018 was .99 cents, this was reported. Goldman Sachs have estimated EPS for 2019 at 1.43 and EPS for 2020 at 1.65.
Thus I can see growth to 2020 averaging say 30%, but its a risk business so i would apply a conservative multiplier of 20. ( which gives a 5% return.)
Thus I simply multiply 1.43 x 20 = 28.60. ( 1.43 / 28,60 = 5% return)
So i think at 30/9/2019 ALL is worth 28.60. Its trading at 24.74 so there is good upside.
Goldman Sach has a price target of 33.00. this suggests even bigger upside.
They could be using a multiplier of 23 which infers a return of 4% (1 divided by 23)
If you dont want to do this calculation you could join FN Arena and they report a panel of broker estimates for each stock + commentary. Its very good.
FN Arena give 1 month free trial.
I used to work for an EPCM company and have good memories of engineers raiding our (accountants) parties and drinking our beer. Then heading off to the next project. They had a great life.
Good hunting.
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Last
$50.02 |
Change
0.040(0.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $31.62B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$49.64 | $50.27 | $49.26 | $87.22M | 1.745M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3384 | $49.99 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$50.03 | 3092 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3384 | 49.990 |
1 | 20 | 49.900 |
1 | 11609 | 49.810 |
1 | 500 | 49.800 |
1 | 2519 | 49.770 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
50.170 | 6 | 1 |
50.200 | 894 | 1 |
50.240 | 449 | 2 |
50.280 | 45 | 1 |
50.500 | 1454 | 3 |
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