I don't know is the short answer. However, given the heavy...

I don't know is the short answer. However, given the heavy disruption is likely to be 2 or 3 months, hopefully the wheels don't fall off the economy. Keep in mind lots of measures coming down the line to support business and consumers which will provide some suppport, for instance I noticed CBA is giving 90 days grace on business loans to affected companies.

MNY will probably have to provision more, but given loans would have to go unpaid for 90 days and have no prospect of recovery to be fully written off, this crisis may not last long enough to cause a big spike in those cases as people may be returning to work proper within that timeframe. I think they are quite good at collections now as well, assuming twisting the customers arm for any kind of payment etc.

The gov has released some charts for various scenarios, most of which play out to around August. I think over next few weeks if case numbers stabilise some normalisation/complacency may slowly emerge. The case numbers are currently growing quite slowly (compared to less fortunate places like Italy), and lots of distancing measures are in place.