Interesting thread here with most people ignoring, that the upcoming decision can of course be a decision of live or die for LYC.
There are three possible szenarios imo
Szenario 1 LAMP receives approvement for the plant. Most likely there will be some adjustments and additional safety requirements in order to calm down the "lab rats". The SP would probably rise to new highs, then decline when some time delay and additional costs come into play.
Szenario 2 LAMP does not receive approval with the goverment making clear that the project is definately canceled for safety reasons. LYC would have to fire staff and hire lawyers. Needless to say that the SP would tank significantly. This would raise questions about the future of the company: alternative production, funding, significant time delay, finding a profitable way of producing REOs. Lynas would in that case just be another explorer, the SP would in that case fall to levels well below a dollar with the future depending upon further developments.
Szenario 3 The LAMP is being delayed for safety concerns until after the upcoming elections. Additional safety requirements along with a waste plan, that requires the hard waste to be stored outside Malysia will be announced. SP will decline to a 1-1,20 $ level according to uncertainties and time delay of 9-12 month.
I think, Szenario 3 is most likely.
In a few days we will know.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.95 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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