AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-104

Putting my thoughts out for Q1 revenue expected 31 Oct - just consolidating all the available data + taking into account speculation from other posts + guesstimate. Feel free to input your thoughts

Just looking at pure revenue, not worrying about costs, depreciation, tax, R&D rebates etc...

Using 9 Oct'20 released report data:

+
Pending from FY20 (30 June'20)

(AT1 definition: Trade receivables are generally due for settlement within 30 days but certain customers have longer payment terms)
and (and 670k NGBio devic FY20 revenue was not present (only showed 1.08m device revenue); so should be in receivables and thus in Q1 FY21 ($3.14/device))

So, my thinking is:
- HIV revenue was on a significantly increasing trend in FY20....so, expecting the continuing scale-up to help trend
- not expecting a huge growth % for this Qtr (for Covid19 based sales yet)
- as discussed with others, production rate is still increasing + awaiting final NGBio order (770k) + we won't be selling much Covid19 tests in large geos as pending approvals.
- I am expecting some AU Ab RDT sales + modest FebriDX related increase as they should have been 'using' more devices to date
- all FY20 Trade Receivables should be present
- am ignoring the 'Other Income' portion for Q1, though its a significant annual rev %, its unclear whether these bits will continue in FY21 and at the same rates

Adding up FY20 Trade Receivables + flat mth run rates for HIV/OEM = $3.62m...absolute minimum $, no growth $

If we add a continuing rev increase for HIV, AU Ab RDTs, FebriDx OEM etc, guesstimate Q1 revenue = $4m to maybe top end $4.5m

....and I would expect Q2 and Q3 to be much more significantly higher based on Covid19 range + HIV + FebriDx scale-up.