@benlinzm
Sorry but I disagree with comparing these two stocks - using just SP growth as a simple value comparison. These are two completely different companies...the only similarities being they are competitors in LFIA test dev space + now in Covid19 Ag test market for the future.....but both companies are soooo different in all its other biz scope, stock value, current + future plans, debt levels, SOI, proven partnerships, revenue trends, manufacturing scale and future SP growth.
I think one needs to review what exactly is the trading/growth path for AT1 stock and how it fits (or doesn't fit) with one's stock trading strategy.
If I was going to trade AT1 based on SP only (which means short-mid term trade of weeks to few months), then holding AT1 through last 7mths downtrend makes no sense whatsoever. I would have bought at IPO and sold when it reached 60c, for a solid 300% profit within couple months. for sure! Or as danhoff says, buy n sell parcels for pips all the time..
If a quick several thousand dollars profit is all that's driving AT1's stock ownership (with no CGT discount after $18k income free threshold)...then no need to read any further..AT1 definitely is not the stock for this strategy.
I actually included AT1 in my portfolio expecting to sell at a profit of several million (~50 of my shares 3-5yrs from 2020 IPO, with a satisfying 50% CGT discount) and possible long term dividends (unknown when and how much, so speculative till it happens)...this profit timeline needs patience, long term due diligence and some more patience...
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Absolutely for the more reliable SP trading volatility, ADO has much more share liquidity (1.6Billion SOI overhang!, with only 29% held by Top20 shareholders), much FOMO & trading hype behind it. Its a true spec stock (and also has many long term SHs who have seen their capital eroded, many who sold at loss over the years and more new buyers that come every year. The SP is up but maybe many holders are forgetting its a long road ahead to a revenue trend which will actually keep the SP up higher forever?). In its last 10yrs+ history, ADO has had many SP booms & busts, ever changing partnerships, strategic direction resets and many, many CRs and option sales (which continue even today).
If you are going to compare (or trade) AT1 based on biz growth + biz fundamental values (for long term returns for diagnostic companies), then AT1 is far ahead of ADO test biz currently (whether in the Covid19 tests or proprietary tests like HIV or big partnerships/investors, actual production + sales for Covid19 test, current + future market approvals in pipeline, other OEM biz earners like FebriDx, space to keep developing with no funding restrictions etc)
If Ellume on the ASX already, absolutely its SP would be going gangbusters too on FOMO..whether it sold or didn't sell any of its touted 300m planned tests over 12mths...
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Quick comparison of a few biz status points - none of which have any relevance to ADO SP trend, which is in FOMO spec trading mode now.
- ADO has just got CE mark for its very first LFIA test (for Covid19 market). Other than another AnteoBind binder product, it has no other income stream, other than investors, share option sales & CRs. ATI already has its globally known HIV tests, which alone are expected to triple/quadruple in sales over next 2-3yrs (according to my research & estimates). AT1's OEM
- ADO still has to announce manufacturing partnership details, quantities, expenditure costs vs actual revenue, any distro deals, then has to still do actual sales + shipments and get the revenue...(read: many months more)...and the Covid19 Ag test space is already pumping with dozens of brands already selling, selling, selling. Several competitor brands already have similar testing accuracy levels. Example: NG Biotech, our old French partner, just got CE approved for their Ninonasal Ag self-test (on their test cassettes) for 98% (sensitivity) + 99% (sensitivity) - v similar to ADO's accuracy results, which have pumped its SHs up for months now. NG Biotech already has announced it will push 4m Ag tests per month of these 'close-to-PCR-accuracy' self-tests, from next month...in the same EU market that ADO is planning its product launch by end of this month...
- ADO has other tech divisions (which continue to work on interesting tech, yes) but which also need a constant cashflow to keep progressing to actual commercialisation (someday). If it makes any good money from its Covid19 tests (in a saturated EU market), it could well be spent just paying off debt, buying back shares for last 5years + making more long term revenue streams actually reach rev stages.
- ADO's 1.6B SOI has to be dealt with someday to generate any real SH returns/dividend distribution,attract future investors/funds etc..
And so on.....
(20min delay)