now let us guesstimate HIV revenue
FY20 total was
H1 FY21 was
If this is in a steady state (I think it has ability to boom with the Unitaid) it should be around $400k a Q)
So, now I am explaining Q3 ($1.5 mill rev total) as Covid low point (see prior post of .8 mill) plus HIV of 'guess' $400k, so now we are up to $1.2 mill rev. Can we 'guess' that OEM will be $300k for last Q.
Well, H1 FY21 was
So, I cannot see how OEM was only $300k for Q3.
Anyway, I can hypothesis the $1.5 mill in revenue was, for some odd reason, a low point for all three revenue streams. COVID, HIV, OEM
COVID low point I have explained, but HIV and/or OEM was a little too low.
But we do have COVID on the 'up' at least until Sep30, but it could actually be NIL after that. One would think that OEM and HIV should replace that revenue after 30Sep. And oddly without COVID existing, the IPO was 20 cents and Mr Market was happy to pay. So we simply loop back to the fact that COVID replaced HIV and OEM focus and revenue, but that will end 30Sep. So for all intents one should consider Atomo on 30Sep as the same beast it was at IPO. And COVID simply contributed 4 mill units and $13 mill revenue from Mar2020 to Sep2021. And other revenue streams suffered because of the focus on COVID.
Now back to the question I asked a few posts ago. What will the revenue be in Q4, and I guess subsequent Qs. Assuming AccessBio does not take up its 2 mill COVID orders until the last minute, it tell me the Q4 will also be 'not so good'. But the Q1 of FY2022 (JultoSep30 2021) will be amazing. That is, the COVID will be filled. And the Lumos will see traction. And HIV will be on the up from the Uniaid take up.
But following 30Sep, it is back to the grassroots.... HIV and Lumos.
If we see another $1.5 mill revenue quarter this month, it means our year has been 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5 or $7.5 mill for the year FY21. Now FY20 was $5.4 mill, so the yearly can crow about a 40% YoY revenue increase. I dont know what Mr Market will think. And most of all, remember in the Q1 Atomo stated
Yet in the half yearly (Q1+Q2) they stated
So it seems the revenue minimum to break even (cash flow on operations) is around $ 2.5 mill per Q. Obviously, one my make cash on operations, then to move into profit overall, the 'make cash' needs to cover all non ops costs.
To recap, I have reread the Qs and the Yearly and Half Yearly. I am still positive. I feel the COVID revenue will largely cease post 30Sep, but the other revenue HIV and OEM will make up for that. I feel this disastrous Q3 (revenue wise) happened to be a low point in all revenue streams. And this low point may even continue through this Q4. Q1 next year will be a huge sugar hit from AccessBio completing their 2 mill covid units contract, and we can see $6 mill in revenue in Q1 just from that! Following that, I guess Atomo will be a $2 mill a Q revenue company, but with upside from Lumos and HIV.
So, on the yearly revenue (at margins of 55% to 60%) we will see FY20 ($5.4 mill actual) FY21 ($7.5 mill DanEstimate) and FY22 ($8 to $10 mill DanEstimate). And I think Atomo need 10 mill annual revenue to get close to breaking even. So, now I really do not expect a profit overall until FY23.
From a share price buying and selling - if Q4 has some of the AccessBio $6 mill more revenue to report, then it may look good - Q4. But if Q4 (a continue of Q3) is ugly (then we know Q1 next year will fly as the $6 mill shows) it may be buy after Q4 and sell after Q1. Because Q2 next year will look not so good (in my opinion).\
I dont know if Mr Market see or agrees with what I see. It does appear Mr Market 'knew' Q3 would be a revenue low point. This is what angsts me about the communication from the company. They know the revenues expected. And they know the bumpiness. I invest in all manner of companies that are very upfront with the information to the market. Atomo seems to be very coy with the info. I bet Joe Hockey knows about the contracts and revenue and pattern expected. But here us mugs sit and wait and track containers on ships, because the company we invested a lot of money in simply does not tell us.
They paint a rosey picture but then report rapidly falling sales and lost cash receipts. They should be upfront.
