AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-212

On a basic calc level, I agree with you about higher share quantity making it difficult for SP to rise quickly. There is a variety of reasons why Small-MidCap companies end up with their respective quotations. I guess its also dependant on how many pre-IPO investors they had, who all want their equivalent piece of the company + the financial book building advice that would be given to maintain liquidity, option/warrant space/future dividend payment levels etc.

The Dec2018 medtech I think you are referring to is EMV? If yes, I do recall looking at it mid-2019 as an SMSF investment but CSL took my attention away then (as CSL was expected to rise back and naturally it didn't have EMV's SmallCap volatility for SMSF safer bets).

Yes, EMV SP has tripled (late 2019), then traded ~double SP (till start 2020), almost fell back to its IPO price in the big Mar'20 dip, and then has steadily increased exponentially since. Trouble is EMV is still un-profitable, in the midst of ongoing clinical trials/product dev, has 12m+ cash (+ recently raised 9m CR, I think?)...and has some ways to becoming cashflow positive. The recent 495%+ SP rise actually (in my view) is more due to speculation on its potential.

Yes, absolutely, its v low 70M+ (?) share qty would directly co-relate to its rise (like the famous Berkshire Hathaway never-diluted SP curve)..especially if enough LTH believed in potential & product market needs..but if you look at its cash runway etc...its probably going to end up adding add more & more shares eventually, to get further investments to complete its product dev/manufacturing/marketing/sales build etc....more CRs & thus additional 100-200m shares might be in-evitable, which will dilute SP (maybe; this is my speculation as I haven't looked deeply into it its status & plans).

Like you+others have said, its unclear why AT1's SP remains stagnant & is not trading on some multiples - like many other lesser status spec stocks are - considering its strong potential in HIV test space, unique device IP, current momentum setup in Covid19 space, v strong cash balance, cashflow positive....from my viewpoint, AT1's starting + options quantity will most likely mean 'no dilution ever needed'...and considering its seems to be on the cusp of increasing revenue curve, the SP reward should come over next 1-2-3yrs...whether as exponential as EMV or steady cents/year growth, we can only guesstimate till the future tells us.