sure, we have had discussions on this - many many times. + another poster (danhoff) has posted a lot of potential calc around revenue vs EPS vs EBTIDA etc....acres and acres of it
+ we have current Canaccord broker estimates (only analyst covering AT1 so far)
Summarising:
- ~60% avg margin (quoted by CEO several times + in the FY20 doc)
- assumption though is margin will keep evolving as its based for now on mainly C-19 OEM supply avg (largest FY20 segment). We have that Ab test revenue % sharing deal with AccBio (yet to kick off) + a longer term supply agreement with NGBio (also pending), which might change this avg significantly for C-19 market.
- then we have the core HIV biz of course, which is AT1's own tests (so should be higher margin than just device supply/sales?) and then we have the added AccBio Ag test sales (maybe) to increase C-19 revenue further.
- anyway, using the FY20 qty sales VS rev data,
estimate per device revenue:
| Covid Ab (primarily NGBio) | $3.4m for 1.08m | $3.148 |
| HIV (all) | $1.2m for 226k | $5.310 |
| OEM (all except Covid19) | $0.8m for 266k | $3.008 |
- Below are the latest production scale-up numbers (Nov'20 AGM doc).
As we only have the FY20 numbers above + only the minimum C-19 order qty agreements (most of which yet to generate any measurable rev trend) + only Q1 data (which wasn't broken down) = we don't know how much production capacity is being allocated for which segment revenue.
You could certainly mix all of the above and end up with a simple Avg Revenue Per Device guesstimate....
Anyway, best
assumption revenue (which we have been working around + using similar broker data).
See danhoff's recent posts today for moire detail- FY21 ($20m+) / FY22 ($40m+) /
FY23 ($60m+)
But, as I posted on the Qtrly thread today to danhoff's most recent calc...these are all assumption darts into the distant horizon...I feel we don't have enough test segment data or order-sale trends to hang our collective handbags on yet..
Feel free to calc and post your thoughts, if you see different stuff in the docs + data....
