I still have a few days left on the Simply Wall Street trial profile...some more automated analysis + updated tables showing (post-AGM data?)
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Here is their Share Price VS Fair Value calc basis for AT1 (should keep danhoff happy for some time? 
)Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Atomo Diagnostics.
ASX:AT1 Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|
| Valuation Model |
| 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity |
| Levered Free Cash Flow | Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See below |
| Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) | See below | 7.6% |
| Perpetual Growth Rate | 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate | 2.3% |
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:AT1| Data Point | Calculation/ Source | Result |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate | 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate | 2.3% |
| Equity Risk Premium | S&P Global | 6.0% |
| Medical Equipment Unlevered Beta | Simply Wall St/ S&P Global | 0.83 |
| Re-levered Beta | = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.829) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (0.029%))] | 0.886 |
| Levered Beta | Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) | 0.886 |
| Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity | = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.26% + (0.886 * 6.01%) | 7.58% |
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation forASX:AT1using2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Atomo Diagnostics is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
ASX:AT1 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
| Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) | Source | Present Value
Discounted (@ 7.58%) |
|---|
| 2021 | -0.6 | Analyst x1 | -0.56 |
| 2022 | 4.3 | Analyst x1 | 3.72 |
| 2023 | 15.5 | Analyst x1 | 12.45 |
| 2024 | 26.9 | Est @ 73.58% | 20.08 |
| 2025 | 40.94 | Est @ 52.18% | 28.41 |
| 2026 | 56.18 | Est @ 37.21% | 36.23 |
| 2027 | 71.19 | Est @ 26.72% | 42.68 |
| 2028 | 84.99 | Est @ 19.38% | 47.36 |
| 2029 | 97.1 | Est @ 14.25% | 50.3 |
| 2030 | 107.44 | Est @ 10.65% | 51.73 |
| Present value of next 10 years cash flows | A$292 |
ASX:AT1 DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
| Calculation | Result |
|---|
| Terminal Value | FCF2030× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$107.438 x (1 + 2.26%) ÷ (7.58% - 2.26% ) | A$2,064.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
A$2,064 ÷ (1 + 7.58%)10 | A$993.97 |
ASX:AT1 Total Equity Value
| Calculation | Result |
|---|
| Total Equity Value | = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$292 + A$994 | A$1,285.97 |
Equity Value per Share
(AUD) | = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$1,286 / 563 | A$2.28 |
ASX:AT1 Discount to Share Price
| Calculation | Result |
|---|
| Value per share (AUD) | From above. | A$2.28 |
| Current discount | Discount to share price of A$0.33
= (A$2.28 - A$0.33) / A$2.28 | 85.5% |
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(Trading data seems to be as of 25 Sept'20 - I wouldn't assume all 'insider' buy/sell transactions are listed below)
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((as per table, seems to none past 28 Aug - I wouldn't assume all 'insider' buy/sell transactions are listed) 
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(Data as of 25 Sept'20 - don't think we have seen a later Top20 anywhere else, right?) (Top 22 SHs have 63% of company)
