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Thanks man, that helps me understand the calculation and the...

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Freeman1

35 Posts.

16/12/20

14:50

Post #: 49623837
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Originally posted by danhoff: ↑

I had this sheet on another thread from a month or two ago.... it is a mix of Canaccord numbers and my EBITDA and costs analysis from the yearly... but... I see it all starts with $22 mill revenue. Will we hit that? I have gross eps of 3.7 and costs of 2.7. (I just show free cash flow to see if enough coming in to fund what is needed).

Also, I dont know if there are 400 mill or 600 mill shares to be considered. I actually have seen BOTH numbers published! I used 600 mill.

And to be honest, with all the $$$ invested in the EXTRA manufacturing ramp up (more than we expected), it may be the 'new capital' in col E is too low.

I also did another analysis just based on them selling all they make. Which had me between $15 mill and $20 mil revenue this fin year. We really dont know and can only project 'some guesses'. But at 60% margin they are clearly profitable once they get in that $15 to $20 mill range... 1/2 cent.... 1 cent... 1.5 cent. I really do not know. I am just saying we ARE profitable now.... I think.

Now we may be at 30 cents because better minds than me think we are a year behind where we should be. Maybe that FY21 really will not come to pass until FY22. Man the half yearly will be so interesting to read!

Canaccord has a simple chart in my Macquarie - see below. But you can see I transplanted those numbers in cols B and F above.

Expand

Thanks man, that helps me understand the calculation and the assumptions a little better.
and I agree with your opinion that we should get profitable this FY. Can't wait for the half yearly numbers to come out (even though I expect a substantial increase in the 3rd and the 4th quarter in comparison to this quarter)
Cheers

AT1 Price at posting: 30.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

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