if sales on q2 are $1.426m, then we are in big trouble
what would be good is an analysis is of HIV sales; I say this for a few reasons
1) I assume the sales increase each Q... and saying $2mill from last fin year means $500k a Q is not correct
2) I would guess you can figure out HIV sales for q1 from the q1 report????.... no you cannot, I just looked
3) since 2 not possible, I guess one can figure HIV H1 FY20 vs H2 FY20.... can you?
3) the early DEC report on HIV was very, very upbeat, so whatever 'was' has increased
so.... without any detail I can guess the q2 bottom (min) may be $2 mill, assuming very low covid
Now recall the company has always stated sales, production are increasing. So the q1 where we had the $2.5 mill new sales would be very odd if they fell back below that; with no info from the company it cannot be below $2.5mill.... can it? I mean that would be kind of unfair to say: we sold $2.5m in Q1, and we are growing, and with no further news, we sold LESS in Q2
If you want to feel better, just google febridx; THAT is where the growth will come from and LONG TERM growth
Also, I note the take-or-pay re the Nth America sales
OK.... let us try to work out the HIV $$$$
1) total revenue was 900k H1FY20.... let us assume 100% HIV
2) non covid fy20 was 2mill (Soul told us above)
hmmmmm, that means there was no growth of HIV sales between half1 vs half2 FY20; that is odd!!!!! so the entire growth in H2FY20 was covid $3.4 mill!; and if the covid sales did not repeat in this half (JUL-DEC20) we can have sales/revenue well down; goodness me! I really do not know what to think; it may be possible our covid sales are just steady.... or NIL?????? this Q ...and it can be our HIV sales are steady or slightly up or way up.... ha ha..... we will find out soon
I now have a sneaky suspicion Q2 is not going to be good, but HALFYR will be OK.... it will depend on the spin on the report; it is weird.... we may be pivoting AWAY from covid... or we may be in a holding pattern... like this Q2 never existed.... just wait (sales wise) and only be a manufacturing ramp up Q; interesting; one good thing is the report will show us what it means to get NIL info from the company over many, many weeks... are they covering up falls in sales.... or are they simply thinking 'we dont need to tell you anything, because nothing change'. I loop back to 'nothing changed' which last report was 'we are growing, not going backward'
(20min delay)