AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-833

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Beaza79

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20/02/21

09:01

Post #: 51176351
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Originally posted by danhoff: ↑

Atomo have a history (albeit short) of packaging up a good announcement with (or right before) a quarterly or half yearly. That is my recall. The Q report comment you refer to (minus 1.6 mill) may be a cash flow thing. I was surprised their cash flow did not go back further with the ramp up they did. If you can double production on a product that has 60% margin for $1.6 mill, that means you are all set to grow. Well, you CAN grow. You are not hindered by manufacturing. So now it is all about the sales.

C'mon. The HIV and Febridx are quality products in a quality space. I can almost forsee a supply agreement (volumes) between Lumos and Atomo on the horizon. Lumos is going to be huge. I only worry they will try to do their own thing re the device Atomo supply them. We have seen that before.... a partner suddenly becoming a competitor. That was weird.

I think we know what the half yearly will be. $5 mill sales for the half. They will say '10 times sales of corresponding half year' (and that is true). But in reality I think the last three half years have been $0.5 mill, $4.5 mill, $5 mill. The half year before the $4.5 was 0.5 mill. Hence the 10 times.

And I think on profit they will break even. They will simply call the 'cash loss' as capital expenditure and it will show in the balance sheet. AT1 will look like they are treading water. That is not a bad thing, if you set yourself up for growth - having devices to sell.

So I forsee

1) break even financials
2) no growth for 18 months (but not backward)... overall Covid was a spike up early, but now gone, but underlying product replacing those lost sales
3) steady HIV growth
4) imminent Lumos sales
5) covid just some steady sales - if it is fruit for the sideboard, it is just a few raisins
6) a great trumpet re the increased manufacturing (I wonder if 'stock' will show up on the balance sheet)
7) some valid progress on one mystery product application (it may be the herding cats is finished - and there will be focus on one new area they are confident in

Now as I type 1 to 7, it is very unimpressive. I dont think they can give guidance re sales and ebitda or profit. So we will be back to 'waiting' for some new contracts knowing we are 'ready' to supply.

Expand

what wasn’t going to grow for 18 months in point no. 2??

AT1 Price at posting: 28.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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