I am tracking/posting the Access Bio Ag test wins for several reasons:
- no, there is no direct rev implication for AT1 from Access Bio Ag sales, but since Access Bio currently is our biggest partner (and one of the oldest) , keeping an eye on their financial status + biz health.
- Having a v healthy big partner allows further expansion of joint R&D, clinical trials, new dev potential between both companies.,....as well as enough $ to scale-up current + future AT1-Access Bio agreement needs.
eg: Access Bio has had licence rights from AT1 to manufacture OEM Pascal devices since last 2yrs (believe it was for HCV test under trial in 2018) - stuff like setting new test manufacture + global launch needs lots of spare cash...which could end up being v good for AT1's licensed OEM revenue, if ever goes down this route)
- keeping an eye on Access Bio supply chain health...they have been scaling up their Ag test production...and despite regular + v large orders, seem to have no difficulty so far in delivering (eg: all their distro orders have like 1wk - <1mth fulfilment conditions..for m's of kits!!). Which continues to assure me that there will no supply concerns if AT1 ever needs m's of kits for AU, India or any other geo.
- demonstrated sales + usage success for Access Bio Ag kits should assist in any AT1's advertising/sales outreach for those same Ag kits in AU/India/other geos.
No, the NG Bio partnership isn't dead at all.....it just didn't progress as investors would have expected. NG Bio didn't take up the remainder ~700k OEM devices to retain their exclusive Ab test rights for EU/France. Which has been surprising considering the infection rates across France/EU, which should have easily consumed this paltry test qty. Based on media articles + the missed take-up, it looks like NG Bio decided to use a contract manufacturer to produce basic test devices for their Ab test and continue their geo sales...presumably to retain higher margin.
Sidenote, we have partnered with Access Bio to get their Ab test strip re-approved for USA geo...so this is a good alternate option, in case the NG Bio relationship does go sour/end for some future reasons. However, this would also mean AT1 would need to get re-approval for Access Bio Ab tests in ANZ, India etc...waste of time + money + biz wise I don't really see any risk of why this would occur at all.
My view why the NG Bio partnership is not dead/going to end anytime soon:
- we still have rights to sell their Ab test on our devices + brand name for ANZ, India and other SE Asia geos. No biz reason for NG Biotech to end the relationship, considering AT1 is selling their Ab test (on our devices + at our costs) in additional non-EU geos. Its easy money for them, so to speak..
- NG Biotech still show their Ab test on their site with AT1 device + their own cassette device + I see their distro sale points also with the same. In addition, Q2 qtrly update also confirmed that "NG continues to pursue various sales channels, including being well-progressed towards securingEuropean CE Mark self-test approval which will allow access to a premium market with significantly less competition". This was also re-confirmed again in this week's webinar that the EU application is in progress. So, yet another biz rev reason for relationship to continue for as long as Covid19 Ab testing is needed.
- due to the exclusivity clause expiry, we can now actually sell the Ab test in their backyard (under our brand name). Whether biz wise AT1 will actually do this, we don't know yet....might be bad manners..but agreement wise, its perfectly legal so they can't complain about it...will know over time.
In my view, the Divoc partnership is still promising + Covid19 rev potential ahead:
- confirmed again in webinar, that they are going to fast track the Access Bio Ag + Ab test approval into India, via the US FDA approval (which India will accept and onboard faster, per their regulator).
- We were going to approve + sell NG Bio Ab test (on our devices + brand) in India, so its unclear to me whether this will still be going ahead...as Divoc was meant to have already submitted this back in Q1 FY21..anyone know more info here? - yes, Access Bio could sell their Ag test directly into any geo within AT1's non-exclusive agreement.. eg: they have Pantonic Health in AU with TGA approval under Access Bio brand as well as AT1 branded kit. So far, they have not done this though in India....and as mentioned above, it was confirmed AT1 was going to onboard their tests into India, it doesn't make biz sense for Access Bio to do more sales work than necessary. Also, Access Bio work exclusively thru distro's for the general market and so far don't seem to have any India distro's online (that I can find). Certainly if AT1/Divoc don't work hard enough, Access Bio is within its rights to sell via other India distros.
I don't think any of my above thoughts + company statements completely removes any biz risks/concerns..its still very much a growing company & going to be risky till well established internally + externally with partner agreements
For now, in my view, the risks above are still minimal and AT1 so far has not made any major mis-steps (of its own accord). Whether it manages to sell its Covid19 or any other test types in ever increasing quantities...that is company performance we need to wait and confirm thru 2021-22.
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