Hi, Looking for a bit of advice.
There seems to have been a fair bit of worry about dilution in current capital raising discussions. Perhaps I'm missing something but I don't see it.
Given that, with recent German finance and mezz term sheet received, the project would appear to be virtually guaranteed to go ahead (Mgmt seem to be just trying to get the best deal). I am assuming a capital raise will be required for approx. $30M (?? Based on reporting I've seen - is this correct?)
If share price stays where it is lets say cap raise at about $0.15/share so 200,000,000 (200 Million) shares to be issued. Current, fully diluted, shares on issue of approx. 1 Billion shares so 1.2 Billion total shares after cap raise.
Based on info provided by company we can look at a couple of scenarios for future value (say 3 - 4 years). 1. Conservative Business case assumptions (EBITDA $77M), 2. Best case (EBITDA $133M) and 3. an average (positive) case say EBITDA $100M. Assume Depreciation of about $25M (again my estimate) for EBIT of $52M, $108M and $75M.
This equates to 1. $0.043, 2. $0.09 and 3. $0.063 at a PE of 15 (Market Average) this would provide a valuation of 1. $0.65/share, 2. $1.35/share and 3. $0.95/share. (This does not take into account any future growth scenarios)
Even if cap raise could be done at $0.30/share would make less than 10% difference to these numbers.
Even conservative business case scenario looks like a 400% increase in 3 - 4 years. Given constantly reducing risk profile that looks pretty good.
Appreciate thoughts on my numbers & thought process from people who have given this more thought than me.
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