So it is 4, especially obvious as the scope expands with TSX...

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midlifecrisis

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07/03/24

11:44

Post #: 72790772
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Originally posted by midlifecrisis: ↑

There were some thoughtful posts across various threads on 92E where posters were equally puzzled by an enormous arbitrage profit on offer here.

To put it simply, at today's price you can buy a share at under 60c and get close to a dollar in April

Arbitrage opportunities are keenly sought and it is rare to see any merge or takeover target more than 10% below the takeover price. Here we have 40%.

(Not to mention it is sometimes higher, if another bidder is expected).

Several theories were offered throughout various threads and forums:
1) This somehow is flying under radar
2) People do not want Canadian script
3) The market doesn't believe the deal will complete
4) ATHA is a thinly traded stock with a few cornerstone holders who control the SP and it is not worth anywhere near it's market capitalisation

I will also like to point out that SP is probably about where it would have been without any news of the merger. Due to rise in U sentiment which lifted most U stocks.

Theory #1 Is nonsense because this is a big enough stock to be on the radar of mid sized investment managers and professional investors who would pile into it.
Theory #2 is also nonsense because for 40% profit people will switch brokers in a flash if need be

The remaining 2 "theories" are more likely.
#3 begs another question - if it is true, why is market not believing in completion of this deal? What is the knowledge that we as retail investors don't have?
#4 implies that SASK SP will drop after the merger and indicates a game of musical chairs may be forthcoming.

So, in summary, I don't have an answer, or any other theories beyond these. But watching with great interest.

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So it is 4, especially obvious as the scope expands with TSX listing
4) ATHA is a thinly traded stock with a few cornerstone holders who control the SP and it is not worth anywhere near it's market capitalisation
Still good arbitrage available, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see ATHA to fall further

92E Price at posting: 46.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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