AHN (ASX) Athena Resources Research Commentary (25x + Potential) + Timeline estimate

Originally posted by excitingflynn: ↑

Why I think Athena resource (ASX: AHN) has the potential to be valued at ~ $500 million dollars (25x from here). I am not a licensed financial adviser, so don't this as any sort of financial advice. Everything I say here is in my opinion.

Athena resource is an extremely undervalued multi-commodity play, with exposure to all the right sectors, being Iron ore, Nickel, Copper/Pge and Graphite with some historicals that definitely warrant further drilling. Athena is extremely well-positioned for the increased demand for high grade battery minerals and high-grade 'green' iron ore.

At current levels, Athena resources offer incredible upside with limited downside. Why I say limited downside is because of your FE grade and minerals in the ground. We are not some tech company, nor some saas or other risky business, we are a resource company with billions of dollars worth of Iron ore and other minerals in the ground. An average Joe can tell that we are undervalued, you don't need to be a stock wiz to figure that out.

I am sure most of you guys are here for their 72% + iron ore but the three other assets that Athena has are easily worth multiples of the current MC, worth reading up on their announcements as I will mostly talk about their Iron ore asset here.

First of all, Athena's FE1 iron ore asset is extremely advanced, and I have reason to believe that they have already completed their PFS. (Screenshot below says the PFS was recently updated in 2018)
ASX won't let a company release any studies with financial figures, so I assume it would be released in the next few weeks when the company converts its inferred resources into a 2012 JORC compliant indicated resource.

So why do I think Athena can increase 50x in best case scenario (1b mc)Most readers here probably know this already but we are able to produce Iron ore concentrate reliably at 72% + Fe. That is the highest Iron Ore grade in the world, higher than Hawson's 69.9% FE + we can produce it with net 0 C02 emissions.

There is increasing demand globally for 'Green Iron', and we are perfectly positioned to capitalize on this thematic and have a chance of being off of the key green iron ore players in Australia and globally.

Companies will be eager to buy our Super Purity Magnetite (>72% FE) and I would expect some off takes to be signed.

We are able to grind/crush our magnetite in a few minutes, compared to hours/days of grind/crush time that the big players, such as RIO/FMG are incurring which lowers our operating costs significantly. Hence, we can produce extremely high-grade Iron ore at one of the lowest operating costs, and at current Iron ore prices, we can produce with some fat margins.

Our exploration target suggests we can have a 40+ mine life, possibly more at 2.5 mpta, as proposed by the company years ago. The annual production may be increased now but hard to say without the PFS. I also believe our CAPEX and Payback
time will be significantly lower than peer companies with some 'brief' dollar figures posted in previous announcements but won't speculate on the $ figures here, you can read back on previous announcements. I will say that I suspect the payback time to be less than double of MGT's and most other peer IO companies. The screenshot below also hint's at our 'low CAPEX'

Hawsons was valued at ~700m at peak, pre-production, and have a lower grade than us, and despite their 'green website' they are not net 0 C02 emissions unlike us.

I think we should be valued at ~$200m pre-production, which is 10x from current levels and $~200m pre-production is quite conservative compared to peer companies. Our valuation will obviously increase during production etc

If we can increase our resources to the upper end of our exploration target (~400mt), then we should be valued even more in pre-production. Best case scenario, we would have the first movers advantage and be valued at a premium, as companies with first-movers advantage usually do.

Estimated timeline
I actually think we are quite close to construction and can have everything completed in under 24 months, as indicated by the screenshot below.
PFS ~ 2 months from here, I assume this will made available once we get our indicated resource, and should have assays back in the next 3/4 weeks as drilling started around 5/6 weeks ago.

Mining licenses/approvals etc ~ I suspect it can be done as little as 6 months, as the WA government is really pushing for green steel and I would imagine they would want to expedite everything, plus we already have most of the licenses/approvals. Read the latest ann regarding Byro iron ore, we have done all the environmental studies, transport studies etc

Completion of construction ~ 2 months + 6 months + 12 months = 18 months - We can have already completed in under 18 months, subject to funding, which shouldn't be a problem given our low CAPEX, and super-premium product.

Of course, I am skipping the BFS stage as it seems like the company will skip this step? as hinted in announcements. It all depends in the confidence of the PFS. I would imagine the company/Xinghai who updated our BFS would be bankrolling us into production, as it has provided funding for other companies in the past. Could be wrong, but this is not a big issue as we can secure funding through other means.

Also note that Chinese entities own ~15% of the company, and I'm sure they would want to take this over.

Anyway, at our current minuscule ~$18m valuations, I believe there is a significant upside to be had.

Everything I say is in my opinion only so please DYOR before investing in this gem.

Did not proof read this for grammar so sorry in advance as I'm going to sleep.

GLTAH

Expand

Great analysis from a year back and now they are a lot further along than back then. the SP is so cheap atm compared to a year back but the end goal is still the same.

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Athena Resources Research Commentary (25x + Potential) + Timeline estimate, page-239

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