Well it's interesting isn't it, CVT are down 10% or so on that news, more to come I think.
Synlait have warned us already that infant formula growth will only be 12.5% in FY17 due to expected Chinese regulatory disruption, and I don't think the market has accepted that A2M infant formula sales will probably drop reciprocally.
But this CVT news precedent could easily mean we may see a half on half drop in A2M cross boarder sales also, A2M are a lot more exposed too haing a much greater proportion of sales via the grey channel.
And, in the meantime I see analyst consensus revenue estimates for A2M just ticked up to 46%, that correlates for a contributing need for around 70% in infant formula growth in FY17, what total madness, who pays these guys.
Synlait are telling us to expect 12.5%, nowhere near 70%, CVT may have just indicated that we could even see negative growth for a duration.
The market is in for a such a big expectation gap come A2M agm day when we receive guidance I reckon.
Not trying to be negative, although the glee club will throw rocks at me for being an analyst anyway, but do go into agm time with your eyes open folks and do make your own decisions based on your own analysis.
Personally I'm out now and will be watching, if the situation changes I'll be the first back in at the next value opportunity, great company, IP and management, can't see that happening for a whlie though.
kind regards to all, Lainn
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