I think the SP move today is sustainable. All you need to do is...

I think the SP move today is sustainable. All you need to do is look at the forward PE for BAL based on the TO price. Prior to TO, BAL was trading at PE of 30 for FY20, A2M was trading at 31 PE for FY20. So a similar premium would be on offer for A2M in a TO situation (at a minimum). Though I would argue A2M is a significantly higher quality company and its PE hides the COH, Synlait investment and investment start up losses in the USA which if accounted for would bring the PE down by maybe 15-20%.

This BAL event will definitely add some urgency into the anyone short in the stock and also any competitors (both Chinese and other multinationals) to start doing their sums if this sector M&A activity is about to heat up. AUD is also low, atm.

Bottom is in. For that, I have absolutely no doubt.

1.6 x $13.08 = $20.93 minimum, if equivalent premium applied to A2M (based on current similar forward PE's between the two companies)

Over to you, Mr Jonathon Snape at BP. Still a SELL??? I'll give you two days to come to your senses with an updated recommendation using your common sense instead of your stubbornness. lol