the market is 90% rate of change, and the consensus is correctly...

the market is 90% rate of change, and the consensus is correctly pricing in a drop in pearl prices.

the long thesis from here is not that pearl prices will rise, but that the supply shortfall is structural and that pearl prices are staying elevated versus prior equilibrium pricing, particularly with regards to akoya substitutes in terms of quality and size.

that thesis is quite different to "buy ATP because pearl price is up" which is all the hot money that's come in over the last 6 months is at.

the level of patience needed to play the integral (area under the curve) of a commodity is different to the patience needed to play the buy the commodity bull market. You need to make a call on duration rather than direction.

Fortunately I've had a few experiences where even when commodities fall over my holding period, the underlying equity exposure has more than returned my entry price via capital returns AND held its fairly low multiple. HZN is one of those analogies that compounded at ~40% pa for 3 years, where oil went to >$100+ and back to ~$70 and then $80.

In summary the 4x days are over, and the 20-30% pa expectations is more likely.