Time to take a look at ATS on a future looking basis rather than the depressed sentiment we are looking at currently.
It's worth noting that average WTI prices over the last 10 years have been around the current level and as such it's probably not a bad level to be looking at valuations.
Current MC is ~ $130m. Net cash is about A$15m. Undrawn debt facilities of almost A$70m. So if you assumed full drawdown and no cash we would be talking a max EV of c. A$230m
Our 4MMbbl PDP NPV10 is valued at US$83m or A$120m - this is essentially our current MC.
PDP has been calculated based on a WTI price of $60. Given we have on average received a $7/bbl premium to WTI our effective current sales price is $60-61/bbl which means we are in line with PDP calcs.
Now we have PUD of 28MMbbl. Let's assume a conservative 50% conversion to PDP and that gives us another 14MMbbl of PDP. This is 3.5x current PDP where each MMbbl of PDP has a current NPV10 of ~A$30m at current prices and fx.
Alternatively we have 425 prospective wells with NPV10 of US$7m on a well cost of $9m (assuming they can achieve that reduced cost). Let's say they take the top 50 prospects and hit at 80% that is 40 x $7m (successful wells) - 10 x $9m (dud wells) = US$190m in NPV10 value added or A$275m.
Anyway I cut this I see big upside value from down here. Just needs time
ATS Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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