These guys are ultra conservative with predictions - so if they're confident about the overburden, it's as you suggest, for good reason. On a 100MT, that amounts to an additional $700million profit - which is significant.
Yeah, I had a look at the location of the Duck Creek through the FMG website, but couldn't make too much out.
A couple of months ago when YML released their September activities report (I think), someone gave a summary of the additional iron ore tenements and how prospective they might be. I can't remember who gave the information nor if it was on HC or Aussie Stock Forums. I couldn't find anything after a quick read through aussie stock forum, which leads me to believe it was on HC. Unfortunately I can't remember what this poster said about Duck Creek.
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