As I posted in the past, I always felt that Hauyou had a blocking stake in AVZ and that whoever did takeover the deposit would have Hauyou as part of a Chinese consortium. What would put the cat among the pigions is if a non-Chinese entity takes a stake in AVZ given the acceleration in the drilling program - who the 15% goes to in any future funding will be a key.
Personally, whilst I believe the action will commence once drilling results start coming through I prefer we get to a JORC to maximise SP. This is a game of bluff IMO. I still expect that the areas around holes 1 and 2 and hole 7 will bring consistent results to the drill cores there. Going to 400metre drill depths in some points for the next phase of drilling IMO is about bringing the whole deposit as one deposit IMO and this will become a monster deposit IMO if hits are recorded at 250 metres to 350 metres. I spoke about that in this previously as suspect weathering is a factor (and a drag on TO price) for the areas outside hole 1 and 2 and hole 7 IMO and hence the need for a greater resource at depth in holes 3 to 6 in particular. Refer Post #:
28132422 and tie in to this Post #:
29236391
Whilst I would prefer AVZ develop the deposit under own name I doubt that will happen in due course. Refer: Post #:
28091313
The key to a JORC is getting a measured and indicated resource as that is what forms the basis of mining decisions. Inferred just means there is something there but more work is required - the fact a TO has not come now suggests too me suitors are waiting for further data - i.e. on the road to a measured resource - or the current bids at the 'inferred stage' are inadequate. Here is a pic on what a JORC is seeking to achieve.
Finally any takeover price for AVZ will be dependent on the proposed development size of any mine around the AVZ deposit. If the market cannot accommodate production scale then TO price will be lower. In my opinion the news out of India as posted here, worldwide governments moving to a quicker timeline for EV takeup IMO means that AVZ could have an initial production scale of 10 million tonnes per annum ore feed capacity, producing 6% spodumene concentrate (assuming the drill bit does the talking and all systems are go for mining). Obviously if the miner decide to convert that 6% spodumne concentrate to lithium hydroxide that would also reduce transport costs, notwithstanding the importance of tin credits to also reduce such costs (what are referred in the industry as credits). I discussed that in this post
![Stick Out Tongue](styles/default/xenforo/clear.png)
ost #:
28586307
Posting this purely as something to give to newbies here. I don't post much on AVZ threads as these threads have become a battle between the 'want to be instant millionaires club' and long termers, with some posters joining in the party to yabber sovereign risk (like it hasn't been there since April and what are the Chinese doing again in the DRC) and my deposit is better than yours club. Over the next few years I dare say the market can accommodate miners who have economic reserves but obviously the drill bit for prospective deposits need to do the talking and for some holders in various lithium stocks there will expereince disappointment as the drill bit will not define a sufficient economic reserve. For avoidance of doubt I suspect AVZ will be able to define a economic deposit in line with the JORC code - talk about that further below). At the end of the day it is the drill bit that will decide, and the scale of the proposed mining operation will also be a key as the economies of scale that can be provided for in larger developments will negate IMO the higher transport costs. And obviously the tin credits in terms of AVZ will be a key to further reduce mine costs. Whilst I am bullish on AVZ obviously at the end of the day everything depends on i.) drill bit, ii.) likely market takeup of lithium and iii.) production costs when compared to quantity produced and resulting revenue within a Net Present Value calculation underpinning mining development. An obvious point.
My opinions in my posting history have not changes here. Be a bit more patient and things will turn, unless the drill bit fails which I doubt, but obviously TA in the interim will be based on timeline to JORC (and some here seem to be quiet impatient). Whether you hold or not depends on how fast you want SP growth, but in mining stocks that only comes from positive drilling results IMO and everything else should be treated with healthy skeptism. Anyone in profit in AVZ might want to think about locking in some profit and free carrying as many have done here, including me but that obviously is your call. Having been here early on and before hole 1 drill result, a month or so back I said on here that I sold some and I must say the joy of not having to worry about money for a few years makes you really happy but obviously people need to make own decisions.
Enjoy your VB this sunny Sunday is all I say. Anyway back into the cupboard and hopefully teh next post from me will be yabbering drill results
All IMO