It looks pretty good to me. My big worry was that the EPT would deplete the reservoir at a faster rate than initially expected, but this doesn't appear to have happened. In fact it looks like the opposite - the EPT has shown there is more oil there than originally thought.
The 3D results look good for extension of the structure to the east, past that fault. Whether there is oil in the eastern part of the structure, nobody knows, they need to stick a well in there.
My fear with Surprise was that it would be too small for any meaningful development. They would keep trucking oil out until it was drained, but never make enough to cover their admin and exploration costs, never mind making a net profit for the company. At the moment I'm cautiously optimistic that Surprise could be bigger than I thought.
I could do a rough STOIIP estimate but I'd have to go back over all the past announcements to find estimates of net pay, porosity etc, and try and work out what to use for the oil FVF. That sounds like rather too much work for a stock I'm not holding. :) If anyone wants to do some of the digging for me, knock yourselves out.
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It looks pretty good to me. My big worry was that the EPT would...
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