Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

ETR entyr limited

0.00%

0.7¢

Atzam 5 is alive, page-9

First 9 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
delux73

2,143 Posts.

235

01/03/16

15:24

Post #: 17156365
Share

Originally posted by gassed ↑

Shocks. Is that 56,866 barrels announced Jan-05 include the total production by LAR in Atzam during 2015?

Now, I would really like a calm discussion on this important matter, if possible.
For once, can we all agree that IF this is the case and LAR have been extracting oil from Atzam#5, that confirms at least one of two things.
If CTR management have known about this and have blatantly and contemptuously failed to notify its shareholders it's an absolute breach of the ASX disclosure rules!!!!

Or, the "breakdown" in communication between CTR and LAR has been so serious that LAR have refused to disclose any information to CTR given the new 90:10 ownership relationship (which let's keep for a separate discussion for the time being).

Now, from what we HAVE been told, LAR tapped into C18 and oil flowed, but, LAR plugged it because they considered it not to be a sufficient flow rate to be worthwhile to warrant them continuing testing C18 and moving to C17 instead. Remember LAR were then only to receive a gross 40% of A#5, i.e. 40 BOD!! That's the last we heard of A#5 and that's when it all went down the gurgler FOR CTR!!!

Now after that 90:20 "deal" was done, 90% of A#5 became 90BOD FOR LAR. That "could" very well be "satisfactory" for LAR when added to 90% of A#4, so, they went back into C18 and that's what has been flowing during 2015 and explains Page 41, Image 4..

But, if that is correct, we can only deduce that that 105BOD must be either coming from C18, or, IF LAR was to spend more dough and went up to C17, which most of us wanted to do all along, then, the BEST that we could have got out of A#5 IF they DID go to C17 when CTR was involved, would probably be no better than what they were getting from A#4 AND with the same problem!!

One could deduce that LAR (and possibly CTR management) HAD KNOWN all along from their experience in A#4, that C17 in A#5 was a greater RISK than what they could see in C18 and didn't want to RISK leaving C18 until it was exhaustively tested.
THAT's what blew the budget. Top flow from A#4, from LAR's experience, would always be around 120BOD MAX!!!

With the POO at those levels, I would bet my bottom dollar that such a "discovery" advised to the market would have had virtually NIL impact on the SP, contrary to all of our expectations.
So management would have HAD to have made a decision, WHY PROCEED with Atzam???
It looks like its a commercial dud for anyone other than LAR picking up a few dollars to keep their crew employed in a job?

What could ASIC say about that other than a "possible" breach of the ASX listing rules, IF, in fact, CTR even knew about it?

And where did that $3 million per annum come from?????

Peace.

Expand

Hahaha - cool story Gassed.
Now, from a post I put up a couple of weeks ago, The evidence points to production @A5 in Jan 2015 so there is no possibility they flowed it after the farm out deal was done so knock that on the head. http://www.mem.gob.gt/wp-content/up...e-Indicadores-de-Gestión-Enero-Abril-2015.pdf page 36.

Tortugas came online this month so it is after farm out deal.

I will do the math slowly 9000 BO (current prod from assets) per month x 12 x Wti @$33 = $3.56 mill gross (not even factoring in the famed + WTI price the harped on about in ann) nothing more to spend on wells ....we already paid for them.
These wells are on the highly restricted choke as per CTR sales pitch.

I strongly dis-agree with this "With the POO at those levels, I would bet my bottom dollar that such a "discovery" advised to the market would have had virtually NIL impact on the SP"

I think it would have made a significant difference CTR SP @ Jan 2015 was 1c - Wti was $55 US BL so the news that A#5 was successful could have stopped the slide down to 0.001. This would have significantly changed the level of consolidation and re-valued the assets to give fair leverage in the farm out negotiations? wouldn't you agree?

Now the smoking gun will be if CTR directors knew about A#5 and what they did about it?

CTR Price at posting: 5.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

AII

A new NASDAQ listing for a key player in the global critical minerals space

DRO

History repeats for DroneShield investors but carnage so far subdued

STN

Saturn brings up seventh straight Apollo Hill upgrade on 'impressive' 300-hole drill run

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 018 – Potatoes, TACOs, and the $120M helicopter heist

PSC

Prospect's Mumbezhi Project puts it at the middle of copper's megatrend. And FQM just bought in

Week 29 Wrap: ASX hits new all time high of 8,766pts ahead of Aug 1

SYR

Syrah jumps +19% as graphite tariff threat spurs optimism down under

HotCopper Highlights: Trigg; Droneshield; Lumos & more

BDM

Burgundy plunges -20% after turning to layoffs to navigate record-low diamond prices

SER

Strategic Energy extends its QLD copper-gold frontier with Diamantina acquisition

First 9 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.