AUD continues to tank.....USD 0.7138 @ 2:30 am , Jan 6, page-3

@grandcaruso I am a trained political economist (long time ago) and follow macro events very closely, but also a {now retrenched} IT person most of my life. But Yes, and No to the above. It's just trending down. I believe in trends. The trend is your friend. It's the fundamental principle of TA....markets trend. I am not getting into a discussion on the merits or otherwise of TA.
Certainly it gets stuck in narrow trading ranges for weeks, last year .71-.73 for a few months, this is normal, and anyone on a Stock site knows that (trading range vs trending) but I see it is now continuing and soon to re-instate the monthly trend own (TA). I'll supply a separate chart Monthly Chart which makes it more vivid. 0.62-0.64 is the next Chart Support Level, that's all if one looks back. Having already been at 0.69 more than once last year, it's really not a long way to go. Recall it actually hit 0.80 for a microsecond in May, but then resumed the longer term trend, back to 0.70

On the subject of estimates, for once the dreaded "experts" agree with me...or vice versa (the latter, I said it first, they are talking 65c....)
Having said that, Yes, we have the potential pincer effect of US Fed hikes (which I personally doubt, as a keen US and Fed watcher, tho Fed's Williams said 3,4 hikes only a day ago(!) based on the "fundamental strength" of US economy (!), and potential RBA cuts (I don't see them rising).
AU is a commodity country with a commodity currency, and like CA, has been hit with a falling currency as a result. Recall that iron ore prices were the primary concern of the last Federal Budget.

As for another GFC like event, I didn't include it in my macro thinking for this estimate, but it's consistent with my generally bearish reading of macro, of economic releases etc, yes, about which I have written a lot - a huge amount - on HC in Economics Forum, etc. as recently as last night, the whole month, as long as I've been a member (only 3 months). Just take a look at the Baltic Dry Index, for a start, the collapse of global trade, the collapse in commodities generally, just for starters.
We're overdue.
I know very little about Property (that's probably why I'm poor) and didn't include that either, but now that you mentioned it, and having returned to Oz from living in USA most of my adult life, the land of the Property bubble and sub-prime residential real estate mortgage crisis, a few years ago, I could immediately see that prices here were even crazier than the Residential R/E bubble in USA. I have a friend whom I respect, is a specialist in "all things real Estate /Property", knows far more than me, and she agrees, tho' neither of us has been able to predict the timing of this.
"it's hard to predict the next catalyst to move it outside of it's current range. "
I don't think it needs a catalyst - it has been falling of its own intrinsic weakness without another GFC, Property collapse, or Fed rate hikes - tho you (and I, just now), have discussed some fundamental factors that are in play.
Having lived thru several epochal bubbles - and their invariably ugly aftermath - I have learned first hand and at great personal cost - that trees don't grow to the sky.
AUDUSD MONTHLY - from Sept 2014...of course it was higher than 0.92 before then (1.10) , but that's all I can sensibly fit (into this this charting tool).