AGO is really interesting here. Even if they only export 5M MT and make $30/MT that is $150M EBITDA. So on 7x earnings, which is conservative $1B or 1.10/share. That does not take into account Horizon 2/Horizon 3 or possible rail options. UBS came out today with 95 cent AUD and 90 cent 2014 estimate. If we assume $100/MT price of Iron ore and 90 AUDUSD in 2014 that is $111 iron ore price in AUD terms. Minimum margin of $30/MT. For a long term view 80 cents is cheap. Cash $400M less debt of $300M that is $0.10 per share there. This is cheap. Go AGO!!!!!!
AGO Price at posting:
80.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held