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Trae

1,487 Posts.

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20/04/17

23:53

Post #: 24181554
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Originally posted by Trae ↑

SPG

For mine the key is removing the noise.

All learning material I've encountered has been about getting in and out at some 'technical point' on the chart and/or based on some confluence of rules. No wonder FA pundits can't understand why people use TA voodoo.

I've never met anyone or read an article where someone was attempting to build a model that gets them in at the bottom (a specific timestamp) and out at the top (another specific timestamp). Considering that this is the nirvana of a trading strategy it's a bit of an oversight right?..

To break down the AUDCAD (1979-2017):

Here's raw price. Looking at that alone I'd be very uncertain taking a position at ANY point.
View attachment 551091

Looking at price there are frequencies (Referred too by gann, dow theory or HFT).
I'll refer the the big moves as the 'Alpha', medium term moves as 'Beta' and the short term as 'Gamma'.
Here Alpha refers to the market extremes on a 60 day basis, Beta 10 and Gamma 3
View attachment 551103

This is what Gamma looks like:
View attachment 551094
Terrible right..This is what most traders attempt to profit from.
Don't get me wrong, you can profit from this but there is a direct relationship between win:loss & risk:reward.
If you trade high frequency, for mine, you'll put a lot of effort in a if your good you'll get consistent unimpressive returns and stay in the game a long time to tell everyone that your a veteran (there's plenty of these blokes around).

This is beta:
View attachment 551097
Presents opportunity for a lumpier PnL then short term. To me it still looks like a casino.

And here's Alpha:
View attachment 551100
Take notice of the predictability of the next move & the length of the moves...

If this is in a book, I've not seen it so I hope this helps.

Expand

Here's the last 3x 6 monthly's to give context to the Gamma wave reversion probabilities.
(The upper & lower envelopes in purple are based on the 90% precentile meaning 9 out of 10 times, if price tags these boundaries it will revert). Money for jam

Based on the reversion point and the size of this retrace, this current upmove may be the start of the next Beta wave.
Closing the trade & taking profits.

Price at posting: 1.3492 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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Last 1.3591		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! n/a

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.3591	0.0000	0.0000	$0	0

AUDCAD, page-28

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AUDCAD, page-28

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