audeo prospectus, page-3

you've got to consider the context in which the probability is assigned.

If the reference that i found is correct. . . .. then this probability is some sort of input into the valuation of options? Is this correct?

I only glanced at the document, but . . . . .It may be that this calculation is really for tax purposes, and that it suits the stakeholders for the probability to be kept low, as this flows through to a lower tax bill. . . . .and so they set it at a level that is entirely defensible, but reflects their motivations?